Football · Malta Premier League · 26/10, 20:30

Prediction: Mosta FC vs Hibernians

Team pages: Mosta FC · Hibernians

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

Mosta FC1.08

Hibernians1.46

1X2

27% 27% 45%

Mosta FC Draw Hibernians

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Mosta FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWDLDDDL

Hibernians 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDLDLDWW

Head-to-head

Mosta FC 1–1–4 Hibernians (6 last)

Hibernians2-0Mosta FC
Hibernians1-0Mosta FC
Hibernians0-2Mosta FC
Mosta FC2-2Hibernians
Hibernians2-0Mosta FC
Hibernians3-2Mosta FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mosta FC 1497 · Hibernians 1482

	Mosta FC	Draw	Hibernians
Our model	27%	29%	45%
Market	28%	26%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Hibernians: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mosta FC	Hibernians
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	0.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 3.9	3.1 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.40

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.02

2 (-0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:50 +6’	3.20	3.40	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mosta FC 1–1–4 Hibernians

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Malta Premier League	Hibernians	2-0 HT 1-0	Mosta FC
31/01/26 Malta Premier League	Hibernians	1-0 HT 1-0	Mosta FC
11/01/26 Malta Premier League	Hibernians	0-2 HT 0-0	Mosta FC
17/09/25 Malta Premier League	Mosta FC	2-2 HT 1-1	Hibernians
23/02/25 Malta Premier League	Hibernians	2-0 HT 1-0	Mosta FC
07/12/24 Malta Premier League	Hibernians	3-2 HT 2-0	Mosta FC

Standings · Malta Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valletta	9	7	1	1	21	7	22
2	Marsaxlokk FC	9	5	2	2	15	12	17
3	Floriana	9	4	4	1	21	12	16
4	Sliema Wanderers	9	4	2	3	12	12	14
5	Mosta FC	9	3	4	2	13	13	13
6	Hamrun Spartans	9	3	4	2	14	11	13
7	Hibernians	9	3	3	3	9	12	12
8	Balzan FC	9	2	5	2	12	10	11
9	Birkirkara	9	3	2	4	10	9	11
10	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar	9	2	2	5	10	15	8
11	Gzira United	9	0	4	5	7	19	4
12	Birzebbuga	9	1	1	7	5	17	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mosta FC	Hibernians
Valletta	0-2 L	0-2 L
Floriana	3-3 D	0-4 L
Gzira United	1-1 D	2-1 W
Birzebbuga	2-2 D	1-0 W
Sliema Wanderers	1-3 L	2-0 W
Marsaxlokk FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Birkirkara	1-0 W	1-1 D
Hamrun Spartans	2-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Mosta FC (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mosta FC

WWWWDLDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Valletta Malta Premier League	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
18/10	Floriana Malta Premier League	1-3	3-3	6	5	D
14/10	Gzira United Malta Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	8	D
09/10	Birzebbuga Malta Premier League	0-1	2-2	4	6	D
13/09	Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League	0-2	1-3	2	1	L
05/09	Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League	1-1	1-1	1	3	D
30/08	Birkirkara Malta Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
23/08	Balzan FC Malta Premier League	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
17/08	Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
10/05	Naxxar Lions Malta Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	7	W

Hibernians

LWLDLDLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	Gzira United Malta Premier League	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
18/10	Birzebbuga Malta Premier League	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
11/10	Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League	1-1	2-2	1	5	D
20/09	Floriana Malta Premier League	0-2	0-4	2	1	L
12/09	Birkirkara Malta Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
02/09	Valletta Malta Premier League	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
28/08	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
21/08	Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
16/08	Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
30/04	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League	0-2	0-3	14	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mosta FC vs Hibernians?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hibernians win (45%). Probabilities: Mosta FC 27%, draw 27%, Hibernians 45%.

How many goals are expected in Mosta FC vs Hibernians?

The model expects 2.55 goals (Mosta FC 1.08 · Hibernians 1.46), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Mosta FC vs Hibernians?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.