Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 07/08, 00:00

Prediction: Union Santa Fe vs Lanus

Team pages: Union Santa Fe · Lanus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.12Total

Union Santa Fe1.22

Lanus0.9

1X2

42% 32% 26%

Union Santa Fe Draw Lanus

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Union Santa Fe 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDDWLLDL

Lanus 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLLWLWWL

Head-to-head

Union Santa Fe 1–4–1 Lanus (6 last)

Lanus2-1Union Santa Fe
Lanus1-1Union Santa Fe
Lanus2-2Union Santa Fe
Union Santa Fe0-0Lanus
Union Santa Fe1-1Lanus
Union Santa Fe3-0Lanus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Santa Fe 1457 · Lanus 1489

	Union Santa Fe	Draw	Lanus
Our model	42%	32%	26%
Market	42%	32%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.12 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Santa Fe	Lanus
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.7	0.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.2	1.9 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.3	5.2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.20

X2.90

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.75

Under 1.752.05

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
01:03 +5’	2.20	2.90	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Santa Fe 1–4–1 Lanus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/01/26 Argentina Liga Profesional	Lanus	2-1 HT 1-0	Union Santa Fe
13/09/24 Argentina Liga Profesional	Lanus	1-1 HT 1-0	Union Santa Fe
28/03/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional	Lanus	2-2 HT 1-2	Union Santa Fe
05/11/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional	Union Santa Fe	0-0 HT 0-0	Lanus
17/06/23 Argentina Liga Profesional	Union Santa Fe	1-1 HT 0-0	Lanus
03/07/22 Argentina Liga Profesional	Union Santa Fe	3-0 HT 1-0	Lanus

Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Velez Sarsfield	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
2	CA Independiente	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
3	Defensa y Justicia	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
4	Deportivo Riestra	2	1	0	1	4	2	3
5	Lanus	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
6	Instituto AC Cordoba	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
7	San Lorenzo	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
8	Newell's	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
9	Gimnasia Mendoza	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
10	Union Santa Fe	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
11	Platense	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
12	Estudiantes LP	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
13	CA Talleres de Córdoba	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
14	Boca Juniors	1	0	0	1	0	3	0
14	Central Cordoba	2	0	0	2	0	3	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Union Santa Fe

WLLDDWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
25/07	Platense Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	2-2	2	5	D
23/05	CA Independiente Argentina Cup	0-2	0-2	1	9	L
13/05	Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-2	7	4	L
10/05	Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
02/05	CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-1	8	8	D
27/04	Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional	1-2	2-2	4	10	D
18/04	Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional	1-2	2-3	15	6	L
11/04	Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-2	6	10	L
03/04	Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-0	9	6	W

Lanus

WDLLLWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	Cienciano Copa Sudamericana	0-3	0-4	3	5	L
26/07	San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
23/07	Cienciano Copa Sudamericana	1-0	2-0	7	7	W
30/05	Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Cup	0-1	1-2	7	9	L
27/05	Mirassol Copa Libertadores	1-0	1-0	10	3	W
21/05	LDU Quito Copa Libertadores	0-0	0-2	1	6	L
10/05	Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-2	2	7	L
06/05	Always Ready Copa Libertadores	0-2	0-4	5	3	L
02/05	Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
29/04	LDU Quito Copa Libertadores	0-0	1-0	6	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Santa Fe vs Lanus?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Santa Fe win (42%). Probabilities: Union Santa Fe 42%, draw 32%, Lanus 26%.

How many goals are expected in Union Santa Fe vs Lanus?

The model expects 2.12 goals (Union Santa Fe 1.22 · Lanus 0.9), with a 55% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Santa Fe vs Lanus?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.