Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 16/08, 00:00

Prediction: Belgrano vs Independiente Rivadavia

Team pages: Belgrano · Independiente Rivadavia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.04Total

Belgrano1.26

Independiente Rivadavia0.77

1X2

47% 31% 22%

Belgrano Draw Independiente Rivadavia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Belgrano 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWDWLD

Independiente Rivadavia 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWWWDWLW

Head-to-head

Belgrano 2–2–2 Independiente Rivadavia (6 last)

Independiente Rivadavia0-1Belgrano
Independiente Rivadavia0-0Belgrano
Belgrano0-3Independiente Rivadavia
Belgrano0-2Independiente Rivadavia
Belgrano2-0Independiente Rivadavia
Belgrano1-1Independiente Rivadavia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Belgrano 1568 · Independiente Rivadavia 1537

	Belgrano	Draw	Independiente Rivadavia
Our model	47%	32%	21%
Market	47%	31%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.04 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Belgrano	Independiente Rivadavia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.8	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.6	1.9 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.6	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.00

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.98

Under 21.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
01:29 +7’	1.95	3.00	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Belgrano 2–2–2 Independiente Rivadavia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Argentina Liga Profesional	Independiente Rivadavia	0-1 HT 0-1	Belgrano
26/07/25 Argentina Liga Profesional	Independiente Rivadavia	0-0 HT 0-0	Belgrano
04/02/25 Argentina Liga Profesional	Belgrano	0-3 HT 0-3	Independiente Rivadavia
26/11/24 Argentina Liga Profesional	Belgrano	0-2 HT 0-1	Independiente Rivadavia
26/04/23 Argentina Cup	Belgrano	2-0 HT 0-0	Independiente Rivadavia
28/07/22 Argentina Nacional B	Belgrano	1-1 HT 0-0	Independiente Rivadavia

Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Argentinos Jrs	3	3	0	0	7	2	9
2	Barracas Central	3	3	0	0	3	0	9
3	CA Tigre	4	2	1	1	4	2	7
4	Independiente Rivadavia	4	2	1	1	5	4	7
5	Rosario Central	4	2	1	1	4	3	7
6	Gimnasia LP	3	2	0	1	4	3	6
7	Sarmiento	4	2	0	2	8	8	6
8	Atlético Tucumán	4	1	2	1	3	2	5
9	Banfield	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
10	Belgrano	3	1	1	1	2	2	4
10	Huracan	3	1	1	1	2	2	4
12	Racing Club	3	1	1	1	3	4	4
13	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto	4	1	1	2	2	5	4
14	Aldosivi	4	0	1	3	3	6	1
15	River Plate	4	0	0	4	0	4	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Belgrano	Independiente Rivadavia
CA Tigre	0-0 D	1-0 W
Union Santa Fe	2-0 W	1-2 L
Sarmiento	4-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Belgrano (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Belgrano

LWWWDWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
01/08	Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
24/07	Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
30/05	Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Cup	1-1	2-2	4	7	D
24/05	River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	3-2	4	4	W
17/05	Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-1	3	10	D
13/05	Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
09/05	CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	3	9	W
03/05	Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional	2-0	4-0	3	2	W
26/04	Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-1	3	5	L

Independiente Rivadavia

DDLWWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
03/08	Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional	1-2	1-2	7	2	L
31/07	Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional	2-0	2-1	3	1	W
26/07	Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
12/07	CA Tigre Argentina Cup	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
28/05	Bolivar Copa Libertadores	1-0	3-1	2	6	W
22/05	Deportivo La Guaira Copa Libertadores	2-1	4-2	3	5	W
10/05	Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
07/05	Fluminense Copa Libertadores	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
03/05	Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	1-1	7	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Belgrano vs Independiente Rivadavia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Belgrano win (47%). Probabilities: Belgrano 47%, draw 31%, Independiente Rivadavia 22%.

How many goals are expected in Belgrano vs Independiente Rivadavia?

The model expects 2.04 goals (Belgrano 1.26 · Independiente Rivadavia 0.77), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Belgrano vs Independiente Rivadavia?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.