Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 30/07, 00:15
Prediction: Gimnasia LP vs River Plate
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.17Total
Gimnasia LP0.89
River Plate1.28
1X2
Gimnasia LP
Draw
River Plate
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 63%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Gimnasia LP
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
River Plate
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gimnasia LP
1–1–4
River Plate
(6 last)
- River Plate2-0Gimnasia LP
- River Plate2-0Gimnasia LP
- River Plate0-1Gimnasia LP
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gimnasia LP 1548 · River Plate 1536
| Gimnasia LP | Draw | River Plate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 31% | 44% |
| Market | 25% | 31% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.17 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours River Plate: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gimnasia LP | River Plate | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.9 | 1.5 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.2 | 2.8 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.2 | 4.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gimnasia LP 1–1–4 River Plate
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | River Plate | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Gimnasia LP |
| 29/01/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | River Plate | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Gimnasia LP |
| 03/11/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | River Plate | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Gimnasia LP |
| 18/04/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Gimnasia LP | 0-3 HT 0-1 | River Plate |
| 17/08/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Gimnasia LP | 1-1 HT 0-0 | River Plate |
| 17/03/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | River Plate | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Gimnasia LP |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentinos Jrs | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Belgrano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Racing Club | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Huracan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Aldosivi | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 6 | Atlético Tucumán | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Barracas Central | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | River Plate | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | CA Tigre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Independiente Rivadavia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Sarmiento | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 | Rosario Central | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | Gimnasia LP | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Banfield | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gimnasia LP
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 14/05 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 11/05 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 8 | W |
| 03/05 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 26/04 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 23/04 | Acassuso Argentina Cup |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 18/04 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 13/04 | Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 10/04 | Atletico Camioneros Argentina Cup |
2-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 05/04 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
River Plate
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Aldosivi Argentina Cup |
0-2 | 1-3 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 03/07 | Flamengo America Friendlies |
2-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 28/05 | Blooming Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 21/05 | Bragantino Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 17/05 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 14/05 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 11/05 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 08/05 | Carabobo Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 10 | W |
| 03/05 | Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gimnasia LP vs River Plate?
According to our model, the most likely result is an River Plate win (44%). Probabilities: Gimnasia LP 24%, draw 31%, River Plate 44%.
How many goals are expected in Gimnasia LP vs River Plate?
The model expects 2.17 goals (Gimnasia LP 0.89 · River Plate 1.28), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Gimnasia LP vs River Plate?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.