Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 09/08, 22:00

Prediction: Atlético Tucumán vs Sarmiento

Team pages: Atlético Tucumán · Sarmiento

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.31Total

Atlético Tucumán1.53

Sarmiento0.79

1X2

53% 29% 18%

Atlético Tucumán Draw Sarmiento

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Atlético Tucumán 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLDLDWWDW

Sarmiento 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWLLLL

Head-to-head

Atlético Tucumán 3–1–2 Sarmiento (6 last)

Sarmiento2-1Atlético Tucumán
Sarmiento2-2Atlético Tucumán
Atlético Tucumán5-0Sarmiento
Atlético Tucumán1-0Sarmiento
Sarmiento4-1Atlético Tucumán
Atlético Tucumán1-0Sarmiento

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atlético Tucumán 1539 · Sarmiento 1462

	Atlético Tucumán	Draw	Sarmiento
Our model	54%	28%	18%
Market	53%	29%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atlético Tucumán (rating 1539 vs 1462).
H2H favours Atlético Tucumán: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atlético Tucumán	Sarmiento
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.5	1.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.1	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.8	1.5 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.20

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.77

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 22.02

Under 21.77

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:30 +13’	1.75	3.20	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlético Tucumán 3–1–2 Sarmiento

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Argentina Liga Profesional	Sarmiento	2-1 HT 2-0	Atlético Tucumán
19/08/25 Argentina Liga Profesional	Sarmiento	2-2 HT 2-0	Atlético Tucumán
14/02/25 Argentina Liga Profesional	Atlético Tucumán	5-0 HT 4-0	Sarmiento
04/11/24 Argentina Liga Profesional	Atlético Tucumán	1-0 HT 1-0	Sarmiento
26/06/23 Argentina Liga Profesional	Sarmiento	4-1 HT 3-0	Atlético Tucumán
20/07/22 Argentina Liga Profesional	Atlético Tucumán	1-0 HT 0-0	Sarmiento

Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Argentinos Jrs	3	3	0	0	7	2	9
2	Barracas Central	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
3	Atlético Tucumán	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
4	Independiente Rivadavia	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Banfield	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
6	Racing Club	3	1	1	1	3	4	4
7	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto	3	1	1	1	1	3	4
8	CA Tigre	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
9	Belgrano	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Huracan	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Gimnasia LP	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
12	Aldosivi	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
12	Rosario Central	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
14	Sarmiento	2	0	0	2	4	6	0
15	River Plate	2	0	0	2	0	2	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atlético Tucumán	Sarmiento
Banfield	1-1 D	2-3 L
Argentinos Jrs	0-1 L	2-3 L
CA Tigre	0-0 D	1-0 W
Rosario Central	1-2 L	1-2 L
Gimnasia LP	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Atlético Tucumán (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Atlético Tucumán

WWLDLDWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
26/07	Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
20/05	CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Cup	1-0	3-0	2	5	W
03/05	River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
27/04	Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
19/04	Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
12/04	CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
05/04	Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
25/03	Sportivo Barracas Argentina Cup	1-0	2-1	6	4	W
21/03	Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-0	6	8	W

Sarmiento

WWWLLWLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	2-3	4	1	L
24/07	Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-3	7	9	L
17/07	Boca Juniors Argentina Cup	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
03/05	Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional	0-2	0-4	2	2	L
26/04	CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-0	3	8	W
20/04	Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-2	3	1	L
13/04	Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
09/04	Tristan Suarez Argentina Cup	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
02/04	Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional	2-0	2-1	1	3	W
22/03	Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-0	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atlético Tucumán vs Sarmiento?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atlético Tucumán win (53%). Probabilities: Atlético Tucumán 53%, draw 29%, Sarmiento 18%.

How many goals are expected in Atlético Tucumán vs Sarmiento?

The model expects 2.31 goals (Atlético Tucumán 1.53 · Sarmiento 0.79), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Atlético Tucumán vs Sarmiento?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.