Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 09/08, 22:00
Prediction: Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield
Team pages: Boca Juniors · Velez Sarsfield
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.2Total
Boca Juniors1.46
Velez Sarsfield0.74
1X2
Boca Juniors
Draw
Velez Sarsfield
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Boca Juniors
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Velez Sarsfield
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Boca Juniors
3–1–2
Velez Sarsfield
(6 last)
- Velez Sarsfield2-1Boca Juniors
- Boca Juniors3-4Velez Sarsfield
- Boca Juniors1-0Velez Sarsfield
- Velez Sarsfield1-2Boca Juniors
- Boca Juniors1-0Velez Sarsfield
- Velez Sarsfield0-0Boca Juniors
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Boca Juniors 1528 · Velez Sarsfield 1551
| Boca Juniors | Draw | Velez Sarsfield | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 29% | 18% |
| Market | 53% | 29% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Boca Juniors: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Boca Juniors | Velez Sarsfield | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1 | 1.6 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 1.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 7.2 | 1.9 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.6 | 5.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Boca Juniors 3–1–2 Velez Sarsfield
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Boca Juniors |
| 28/11/24 Argentina Cup | Boca Juniors | 3-4 HT 1-2 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 15/06/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 26/02/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Boca Juniors |
| 02/10/22 Argentina Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 10/04/22 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Boca Juniors |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Velez Sarsfield | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | CA Independiente | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Defensa y Justicia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 5 | Deportivo Riestra | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Estudiantes LP | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Lanus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Newell's | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Platense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 12 | Union Santa Fe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 13 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 | Boca Juniors | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 | Central Cordoba | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Boca Juniors
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 31/07 | O'Higgins Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 27/07 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-3 | 0-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 24/07 | O'Higgins Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 17/07 | Sarmiento Argentina Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 09/07 | Athletico Paranaense America Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 29/05 | Universidad Catolica Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 20/05 | Cruzeiro Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 5 | D |
| 10/05 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 17 | 7 | D |
| 06/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 11 | L |
Velez Sarsfield
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 11/05 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 17 | 8 | L |
| 05/05 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 01/05 | Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 27/04 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 10 | D |
| 21/04 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 14/04 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 07/04 | Deportivo Armenio Argentina Cup |
3-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 03/04 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 2-3 | 0 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Boca Juniors win (53%). Probabilities: Boca Juniors 53%, draw 29%, Velez Sarsfield 18%.
How many goals are expected in Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield?
The model expects 2.2 goals (Boca Juniors 1.46 · Velez Sarsfield 0.74), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.