Football · Malta Premier League · 22/10, 20:30

Prediction: Hibernians vs Gzira United

Team pages: Hibernians · Gzira United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

Hibernians1.5

Gzira United1.04

1X2

47% 27% 26%

Hibernians Draw Gzira United

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Hibernians 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLDLDLDW

Gzira United 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLDDDD

Head-to-head

Hibernians 3–3 Gzira United (6 last)

Gzira United1-0Hibernians
Gzira United3-2Hibernians
Hibernians4-1Gzira United
Hibernians5-3Gzira United
Hibernians1-2Gzira United
Gzira United1-4Hibernians

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hibernians 1472 · Gzira United 1455

	Hibernians	Draw	Gzira United
Our model	47%	28%	25%
Market	48%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hibernians	Gzira United
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	0.6 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 5.9	1.6 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	5.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.40

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +7’	1.85	3.40	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hibernians 3–0–3 Gzira United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Malta Premier League	Gzira United	1-0 HT 0-0	Hibernians
25/02/26 Malta FA Trophy	Gzira United	3-2 HT 2-0	Hibernians
06/01/26 Malta Premier League	Hibernians	4-1 HT 1-0	Gzira United
18/08/25 Malta Premier League	Hibernians	5-3 HT 1-1	Gzira United
19/04/25 Malta Premier League	Hibernians	1-2 HT 1-0	Gzira United
08/02/25 Malta Premier League	Gzira United	1-4 HT 1-0	Hibernians

Standings · Malta Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valletta	8	6	1	1	19	7	19
2	Marsaxlokk FC	8	5	2	1	15	10	17
3	Floriana	8	4	3	1	20	11	15
4	Mosta FC	8	3	4	1	13	11	13
5	Hamrun Spartans	8	3	3	2	13	10	12
6	Sliema Wanderers	8	3	2	3	9	10	11
7	Balzan FC	8	2	4	2	11	9	10
8	Birkirkara	8	3	1	4	9	8	10
9	Hibernians	8	2	3	3	7	11	9
10	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar	8	2	2	4	8	12	8
11	Gzira United	8	0	4	4	6	17	4
12	Birzebbuga	8	0	1	7	3	17	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hibernians	Gzira United
Hamrun Spartans	2-2 D	2-2 D
Floriana	0-4 L	1-4 L
Birkirkara	1-1 D	0-4 L
Valletta	0-2 L	0-3 L
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar	1-1 D	0-0 D
Sliema Wanderers	2-0 W	1-1 D
Mosta FC	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	0 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Hibernians (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hibernians

WLWLDLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Birzebbuga Malta Premier League	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
11/10	Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League	1-1	2-2	1	5	D
20/09	Floriana Malta Premier League	0-2	0-4	2	1	L
12/09	Birkirkara Malta Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
02/09	Valletta Malta Premier League	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
28/08	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
21/08	Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
16/08	Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
30/04	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League	0-2	0-3	14	1	L
24/04	Mosta FC Malta Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	5	W

Gzira United

DLLLLLDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
14/10	Mosta FC Malta Premier League	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
11/10	Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League	1-1	1-1	2	8	D
14/09	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
02/09	Floriana Malta Premier League	0-0	1-4	0	4	L
29/08	Balzan FC Malta Premier League	0-0	1-2	6	5	L
23/08	Valletta Malta Premier League	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
17/08	Birkirkara Malta Premier League	0-2	0-4	3	6	L
30/04	Floriana Malta Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
26/04	Naxxar Lions Malta Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hibernians vs Gzira United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hibernians win (47%). Probabilities: Hibernians 47%, draw 27%, Gzira United 26%.

How many goals are expected in Hibernians vs Gzira United?

The model expects 2.54 goals (Hibernians 1.5 · Gzira United 1.04), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hibernians vs Gzira United?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.