Football · Malta Premier League · 01/11, 15:30
Prediction: Floriana vs Valletta
Team pages: Floriana · Valletta
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.38Total
Floriana1.18
Valletta1.21
1X2
Floriana
Draw
Valletta
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Floriana
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Valletta
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Floriana
1–3–2
Valletta
(6 last)
- Floriana0-2Valletta
- Valletta0-0Floriana
- Floriana2-0Valletta
- Valletta0-0Floriana
- Floriana0-0Valletta
- Floriana0-2Valletta
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Floriana 1513 · Valletta 1579
| Floriana | Draw | Valletta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 30% | 36% |
| Market | 35% | 28% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valletta (rating 1513 vs 1579).
- H2H favours Valletta: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Floriana | Valletta | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.4 | 2.2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 5.9 | 2.5 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 5.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Floriana 1–3–2 Valletta
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/26 Malta Super Cup | Floriana | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Valletta |
| 09/05/26 Malta Premier League | Valletta | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Floriana |
| 18/04/26 Malta Premier League | Floriana | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Valletta |
| 04/02/26 Malta Premier League | Valletta | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Floriana |
| 10/01/26 Malta Premier League | Floriana | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Valletta |
| 16/09/25 Malta Premier League | Floriana | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Valletta |
Standings · Malta Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valletta | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 22 |
| 2 | Sliema Wanderers | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 17 |
| 3 | Marsaxlokk FC | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 17 |
| 4 | Floriana | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 14 | 16 |
| 5 | Hamrun Spartans | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | Mosta FC | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 15 | 14 |
| 7 | Birkirkara | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 14 |
| 8 | Hibernians | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 13 |
| 9 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 11 |
| 10 | Balzan FC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| 11 | Gzira United | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 5 |
| 12 | Birzebbuga | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 19 | 5 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Floriana | Valletta |
|---|---|---|
| Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | 1-2 L | 4-2 W |
| Birkirkara | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Mosta FC | 3-3 D | 2-0 W |
| Balzan FC | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Hibernians | 4-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Marsaxlokk FC | 2-5 L | 1-2 L |
| Gzira United | 4-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Hamrun Spartans | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Sliema Wanderers | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Birzebbuga | 3-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 4 D 2 L | 7 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Valletta (4 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Floriana
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 22/10 | Birkirkara Malta Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 18/10 | Mosta FC Malta Premier League |
3-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 11/10 | Balzan FC Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 20/09 | Hibernians Malta Premier League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 12/09 | Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League |
1-3 | 2-5 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/09 | Gzira United Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 21/08 | Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/08 | Birzebbuga Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
Valletta
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 21/10 | Mosta FC Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 17/10 | Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 10/10 | Birkirkara Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 19/09 | Birzebbuga Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 13/09 | Balzan FC Malta Premier League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 10 | D |
| 02/09 | Hibernians Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 28/08 | Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 23/08 | Gzira United Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/08 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League |
1-2 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Floriana vs Valletta?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Valletta win (36%). Probabilities: Floriana 35%, draw 29%, Valletta 36%.
How many goals are expected in Floriana vs Valletta?
The model expects 2.38 goals (Floriana 1.18 · Valletta 1.21), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Floriana vs Valletta?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.