Football · Poland III Liga · 10/10, 15:00

Prediction: Pogon Sokol Lubaczow vs Wieczysta Krakow II

Team pages: Pogon Sokol Lubaczow · Wieczysta Krakow II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Pogon Sokol Lubaczow1.3

Wieczysta Krakow II1.33

1X2

36% 27% 37%

Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Draw Wieczysta Krakow II

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLDLWLWLLL

Wieczysta Krakow II 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWDWLLLDLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 1442 · Wieczysta Krakow II 1476

	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	Draw	Wieczysta Krakow II
Our model	35%	29%	36%
Market	36%	26%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	Wieczysta Krakow II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2	0.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.3	1.8 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	5.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.40

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +21’	2.50	3.40	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	11	8	3	0	18	5	27
2	Wisloka Debica	11	7	1	3	16	13	22
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	11	5	5	1	16	9	20
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	11	6	2	3	27	21	20
5	Czarni Polaniec	11	6	2	3	18	16	20
6	JKS Jaroslaw	11	5	2	4	27	20	17
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	11	5	2	4	15	11	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	11	3	5	3	20	20	14
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	11	4	2	5	14	15	14
10	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	11	4	2	5	17	21	14
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	11	2	7	2	12	12	13
12	Wisla Krakow II	11	3	4	4	13	16	13
13	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
14	Korona Kielce II	11	3	2	6	23	27	11
15	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	11	3	2	6	10	14	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	2	2	7	13	22	8
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	11	2	1	8	11	21	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	Wieczysta Krakow II
Wisloka Debica	1-2 L	3-0 W
Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	0-1 L	1-1 D
JKS Jaroslaw	2-5 L	2-1 W
AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	2-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Wieczysta Krakow II (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
26/09	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
19/09	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	2-2	2-5	3	5	L
12/09	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	6	9	W
05/09	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
29/08	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	1-0	4-2	–	–	W
23/08	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
19/08	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
08/08	Moravia Morawica Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	5	3	L

Wieczysta Krakow II

LWDWLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	3	10	W
26/09	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	10	2	L
19/09	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
11/09	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	4	9	L
05/09	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
29/08	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
22/08	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
19/08	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
08/08	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	11	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pogon Sokol Lubaczow vs Wieczysta Krakow II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Wieczysta Krakow II win (37%). Probabilities: Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 36%, draw 27%, Wieczysta Krakow II 37%.

How many goals are expected in Pogon Sokol Lubaczow vs Wieczysta Krakow II?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 1.3 · Wieczysta Krakow II 1.33), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Pogon Sokol Lubaczow vs Wieczysta Krakow II?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.