Football · Poland III Liga · 15/08, 17:00

Prediction: Lipno Steszew vs Kluczevia Stargard

Team pages: Lipno Steszew · Kluczevia Stargard

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Lipno Steszew1.54

Kluczevia Stargard1.45

1X2

39% 26% 35%

Lipno Steszew Draw Kluczevia Stargard

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lipno Steszew 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWWLDL

Kluczevia Stargard 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLWDW

Head-to-head

Lipno Steszew 2–0 Kluczevia Stargard (2 last)

Kluczevia Stargard0-3Lipno Steszew
Lipno Steszew2-0Kluczevia Stargard

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lipno Steszew 1517 · Kluczevia Stargard 1465

	Lipno Steszew	Draw	Kluczevia Stargard
Our model	39%	27%	35%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lipno Steszew (rating 1517 vs 1465).
H2H favours Lipno Steszew: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lipno Steszew	Kluczevia Stargard
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1.6 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.1	2.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	5.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.50

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.55▲	Pinn 2.63 ★
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	2.55 → 2.25▼	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:17 +12’	2.30	3.50	2.55
07:45 +6’	2.55▲	3.60▲	2.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:51 +1’	2.63	3.34	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lipno Steszew 2–0–0 Kluczevia Stargard

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
13/05/26 Poland III Liga	Kluczevia Stargard	0-3 HT 0-1	Lipno Steszew
25/10/25 Poland III Liga	Lipno Steszew	2-0 HT 0-0	Kluczevia Stargard

Standings · Poland III Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Wisloka Debica	3	2	1	0	6	3	7
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	3	2	1	0	4	2	7
3	Wislanie Jaskowice	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
4	Wisla Krakow II	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
5	Czarni Polaniec	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
6	Chelmianka Chelm	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
7	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
8	Moravia Morawica	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Naprzod Jedrzejow	2	1	0	1	5	6	3
10	Hetman Zamosc	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
11	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
13	JKS Jaroslaw	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
14	Star Starachowice	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
15	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	3	0	1	2	3	6	1
16	Korona Kielce II	3	0	0	3	7	10	0
17	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
18	Wieczysta Krakow II	2	0	0	2	2	6	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lipno Steszew	Kluczevia Stargard
Victoria Wrzesnia	3-1 W	1-2 L
KTS-K Luzino	0-5 L	2-3 L
Cartusia Kartuzy	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lipno Steszew

WWLWLWWLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
01/08	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	14	3	D
15/07	Unia Swarzedz Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-3	4	0	L
30/05	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-1	4-3	5	3	W
23/05	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	2	3	W
17/05	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-2	0-5	3	2	L
13/05	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
09/05	Pogon Nowe Skalmierzyce Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
01/05	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	0	3	W
25/04	Cartusia Kartuzy Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	3	7	W

Kluczevia Stargard

WLLLLLLWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
01/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	0-1	3-3	3	5	D
18/07	Warta Gorzow Europe Friendlies	2-0	3-0	7	2	W
08/07	OKS Swit Skolwin Club Friendly List	0-0	1-3	–	–	L
30/05	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
23/05	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	3	10	L
16/05	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	4	1	L
13/05	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	8	4	L
09/05	Pogon Szczecin II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	6	8	L
01/05	Cartusia Kartuzy Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lipno Steszew vs Kluczevia Stargard?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lipno Steszew win (39%). Probabilities: Lipno Steszew 39%, draw 26%, Kluczevia Stargard 35%.

How many goals are expected in Lipno Steszew vs Kluczevia Stargard?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Lipno Steszew 1.54 · Kluczevia Stargard 1.45), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lipno Steszew vs Kluczevia Stargard?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.