Football · Poland III Liga · 04/09, 17:30

Prediction: Unia Swarzedz vs Lech Poznan II

Team pages: Unia Swarzedz · Lech Poznan II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.66Total

Unia Swarzedz1.97

Lech Poznan II1.69

1X2

44% 24% 33%

Unia Swarzedz Draw Lech Poznan II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Unia Swarzedz 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Lech Poznan II 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLWDLWWL

Head-to-head

Unia Swarzedz 1–3 Lech Poznan II (4 last)

Lech Poznan II2-0Unia Swarzedz
Unia Swarzedz1-4Lech Poznan II
Unia Swarzedz2-1Lech Poznan II
Lech Poznan II3-1Unia Swarzedz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Unia Swarzedz 1498 · Lech Poznan II 1474

	Unia Swarzedz	Draw	Lech Poznan II
Our model	44%	23%	33%
Market	44%	24%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.66 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Lech Poznan II: 3-0-1.
High corners: 15.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Unia Swarzedz	Lech Poznan II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.7	1.8 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	1.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 7.7	4.4 / 7.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.75

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:58 +7’	2.05	3.75	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Unia Swarzedz 1–0–3 Lech Poznan II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Poland III Liga	Lech Poznan II	2-0 HT 0-0	Unia Swarzedz
27/08/25 Poland III Liga	Unia Swarzedz	1-4 HT 0-2	Lech Poznan II
26/04/25 Poland III Liga	Unia Swarzedz	2-1 HT 2-0	Lech Poznan II
29/09/24 Poland III Liga	Lech Poznan II	3-1 HT 1-1	Unia Swarzedz

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	6	6	0	0	11	1	18
2	Wislanie Jaskowice	6	4	1	1	9	4	13
3	Czarni Polaniec	6	4	0	2	9	8	12
4	KSZO Ostrowiec	5	3	2	0	7	4	11
5	JKS Jaroslaw	6	3	1	2	12	8	10
6	Wisla Krakow II	5	3	1	1	9	6	10
7	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	6	2	2	2	5	5	8
8	Wieczysta Krakow II	6	2	1	3	8	9	7
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	6	2	1	3	7	8	7
10	Wisloka Debica	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
11	Hetman Zamosc	6	1	3	2	9	9	6
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	6	1	3	2	6	7	6
13	Moravia Morawica	5	2	0	3	6	8	6
14	Naprzod Jedrzejow	5	2	0	3	9	13	6
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	6	1	2	3	8	13	5
16	Star Starachowice	6	1	2	3	5	11	5
17	Korona Kielce II	6	1	1	4	16	17	4
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	6	1	1	4	6	9	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Unia Swarzedz	Lech Poznan II
Grom Nowy Staw	3-2 W	2-4 L
Lipno Steszew	3-4 L	1-0 W
Victoria Wrzesnia	2-1 W	5-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lech Poznan II (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Unia Swarzedz

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	7	5	L
23/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
19/08	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-2	3-2	5	6	W
14/08	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	8	3	L
09/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	13	5	L
01/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	6	3	W
30/05	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	3-4	7	3	L
23/05	Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal Poland III Liga	3-0	3-1	4	4	W
17/05	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	8	0	W
13/05	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	11	4	W

Lech Poznan II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-0	2-4	8	4	L
23/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
19/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	9	5	W
15/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-4	2-4	7	5	L
08/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	10	4	D
01/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	3-1	5-2	7	6	W
30/05	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
23/05	Pogon Nowe Skalmierzyce Poland III Liga	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
17/05	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	2-2	2-4	3	8	L
13/05	Tluchowia Tluchowo Poland III Liga	1-0	1-3	11	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Unia Swarzedz vs Lech Poznan II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Unia Swarzedz win (44%). Probabilities: Unia Swarzedz 44%, draw 24%, Lech Poznan II 33%.

How many goals are expected in Unia Swarzedz vs Lech Poznan II?

The model expects 3.66 goals (Unia Swarzedz 1.97 · Lech Poznan II 1.69), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Unia Swarzedz vs Lech Poznan II?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.