Football · Poland III Liga · 12/09, 12:00

Prediction: Lech Poznan II vs Notec Czarnkow

Team pages: Lech Poznan II · Notec Czarnkow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

Lech Poznan II2

Notec Czarnkow1.4

1X2

51% 23% 26%

Lech Poznan II Draw Notec Czarnkow

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Lech Poznan II 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWDLWWLD

Notec Czarnkow 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLLWWWLW

Head-to-head

Lech Poznan II 0–2–3 Notec Czarnkow (5 last)

Notec Czarnkow2-1Lech Poznan II
Lech Poznan II0-2Notec Czarnkow
Lech Poznan II2-2Notec Czarnkow
Notec Czarnkow2-0Lech Poznan II
Lech Poznan II2-2Notec Czarnkow

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lech Poznan II 1460 · Notec Czarnkow 1568

	Lech Poznan II	Draw	Notec Czarnkow
Our model	51%	24%	26%
Market	51%	23%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Notec Czarnkow (rating 1460 vs 1568).
H2H favours Notec Czarnkow: 3-2-0.
High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lech Poznan II	Notec Czarnkow
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.3	2.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 1.2	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.7	1.8 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.90

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:14 +2’	1.75	3.90	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lech Poznan II 0–2–3 Notec Czarnkow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/04/26 Poland III Liga	Notec Czarnkow	2-1 HT 0-0	Lech Poznan II
17/09/25 Poland III Liga	Lech Poznan II	0-2 HT 0-1	Notec Czarnkow
05/04/25 Poland III Liga	Lech Poznan II	2-2 HT 0-0	Notec Czarnkow
18/09/24 Poland III Liga	Notec Czarnkow	2-0 HT 1-0	Lech Poznan II
12/07/23 Europe Friendlies	Lech Poznan II	2-2 HT 0-2	Notec Czarnkow

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	7	7	0	0	13	1	21
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	7	4	3	0	13	6	15
3	Czarni Polaniec	7	5	0	2	12	8	15
4	JKS Jaroslaw	7	4	1	2	18	10	13
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	7	4	1	2	10	6	13
6	Wisla Krakow II	7	3	2	2	9	8	11
7	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	7	3	1	3	9	8	10
8	Wisloka Debica	7	3	1	3	8	9	10
9	Hetman Zamosc	7	2	3	2	11	10	9
10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	7	2	2	3	5	6	8
11	Naprzod Jedrzejow	7	2	2	3	11	15	8
12	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	7	2	2	3	10	14	8
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	7	1	4	2	6	7	7
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	7	2	1	4	8	11	7
15	Star Starachowice	7	1	3	3	5	11	6
16	Moravia Morawica	7	2	0	5	7	14	6
17	Korona Kielce II	7	1	1	5	18	23	4
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	7	1	1	5	6	12	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lech Poznan II	Notec Czarnkow
Unia Swarzedz	1-1 D	3-0 W
Grom Nowy Staw	2-4 L	0-2 L
Gedania Gdansk	3-2 W	3-5 L
Blekitni Stargard	2-4 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Notec Czarnkow (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lech Poznan II

LLLWDLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
29/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-0	2-4	8	4	L
23/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
19/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	9	5	W
15/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-4	2-4	7	5	L
08/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	10	4	D
01/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	3-1	5-2	7	6	W
30/05	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
23/05	Pogon Nowe Skalmierzyce Poland III Liga	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
17/05	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	2-2	2-4	3	8	L

Notec Czarnkow

DWWLLWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
28/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	6	2	L
22/08	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
19/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
14/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
08/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
31/07	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-2	3-5	6	5	L
30/05	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	2-1	3-1	8	3	W
23/05	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	3-0	3-0	13	1	W
17/05	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lech Poznan II vs Notec Czarnkow?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lech Poznan II win (51%). Probabilities: Lech Poznan II 51%, draw 23%, Notec Czarnkow 26%.

How many goals are expected in Lech Poznan II vs Notec Czarnkow?

The model expects 3.4 goals (Lech Poznan II 2 · Notec Czarnkow 1.4), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lech Poznan II vs Notec Czarnkow?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.