Football · Poland III Liga · 15/08, 15:00

Prediction: Blekitni Stargard vs Lech Poznan II

Team pages: Blekitni Stargard · Lech Poznan II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

Blekitni Stargard1.68

Lech Poznan II1.6

1X2

39% 25% 36%

Blekitni Stargard Draw Lech Poznan II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Blekitni Stargard 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LDWDDWWWDL

Lech Poznan II 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDWDLLLLWD

Head-to-head

Blekitni Stargard 3–3–0 Lech Poznan II (6 last)

Lech Poznan II1-1Blekitni Stargard
Blekitni Stargard3-3Lech Poznan II
Lech Poznan II2-4Blekitni Stargard
Blekitni Stargard2-1Lech Poznan II
Lech Poznan II1-1Blekitni Stargard
Blekitni Stargard1-0Lech Poznan II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Blekitni Stargard 1534 · Lech Poznan II 1489

	Blekitni Stargard	Draw	Lech Poznan II
Our model	39%	25%	36%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Blekitni Stargard (rating 1534 vs 1489).
H2H favours Blekitni Stargard: 3-3-0.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Blekitni Stargard	Lech Poznan II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.8	2.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	1.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.3	2.8 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.60

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:30 +1’	2.30	3.60	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Blekitni Stargard 3–3–0 Lech Poznan II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Poland III Liga	Lech Poznan II	1-1 HT 0-1	Blekitni Stargard
13/09/25 Poland III Liga	Blekitni Stargard	3-3 HT 0-1	Lech Poznan II
31/05/25 Poland III Liga	Lech Poznan II	2-4 HT 1-1	Blekitni Stargard
09/11/24 Poland III Liga	Blekitni Stargard	2-1 HT 1-1	Lech Poznan II
25/04/21 Poland II Liga	Lech Poznan II	1-1 HT 0-0	Blekitni Stargard
18/11/20 Poland II Liga	Blekitni Stargard	1-0 HT 1-0	Lech Poznan II

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Wisloka Debica	3	2	1	0	6	3	7
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	3	2	1	0	4	2	7
3	Wislanie Jaskowice	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
4	Wisla Krakow II	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
5	Czarni Polaniec	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
6	Chelmianka Chelm	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
7	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
8	Moravia Morawica	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Naprzod Jedrzejow	2	1	0	1	5	6	3
10	Hetman Zamosc	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
11	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
13	JKS Jaroslaw	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
14	Star Starachowice	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
15	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	3	0	1	2	3	6	1
16	Korona Kielce II	3	0	0	3	7	10	0
17	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
18	Wieczysta Krakow II	2	0	0	2	2	6	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Blekitni Stargard	Lech Poznan II
Flota Swinoujscie	3-0 W	3-1 W
Tluchowia Tluchowo	4-1 W	1-3 L
Pogon Nowe Skalmierzyce	0-0 D	0-3 L
Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal	3-0 W	6-2 W
Zawisza Bydgoszcz	2-3 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Blekitni Stargard (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Blekitni Stargard

LDWDDWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
01/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	7	1	D
17/07	OKS Swit Skolwin Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
30/05	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	12	4	W
22/05	Tluchowia Tluchowo Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	4	6	W
17/05	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	10	4	D
13/05	Pogon Nowe Skalmierzyce Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	9	7	D
08/05	Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal Poland III Liga	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
01/05	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
25/04	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-3	2-3	3	2	L

Lech Poznan II

WDWDLLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	10	4	D
01/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	3-1	5-2	7	6	W
30/05	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
23/05	Pogon Nowe Skalmierzyce Poland III Liga	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
17/05	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	2-2	2-4	3	8	L
13/05	Tluchowia Tluchowo Poland III Liga	1-0	1-3	11	3	L
09/05	Cartusia Kartuzy Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
30/04	Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal Poland III Liga	3-0	6-2	3	1	W
25/04	Pogon Szczecin II Poland III Liga	2-1	2-2	3	9	D
19/04	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	2-0	3-1	4	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Blekitni Stargard vs Lech Poznan II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Blekitni Stargard win (39%). Probabilities: Blekitni Stargard 39%, draw 25%, Lech Poznan II 36%.

How many goals are expected in Blekitni Stargard vs Lech Poznan II?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Blekitni Stargard 1.68 · Lech Poznan II 1.6), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Blekitni Stargard vs Lech Poznan II?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.