Football · Poland III Liga · 22/08, 17:00

Prediction: Lipno Steszew vs Polonia Sroda Wlkp

Team pages: Lipno Steszew · Polonia Sroda Wlkp

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Lipno Steszew1

Polonia Sroda Wlkp2.06

1X2

17% 22% 61%

Lipno Steszew Draw Polonia Sroda Wlkp

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lipno Steszew 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLDLLL

Polonia Sroda Wlkp 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWLWWWW

Head-to-head

Lipno Steszew 1–1–1 Polonia Sroda Wlkp (3 last)

Lipno Steszew1-1Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Polonia Sroda Wlkp2-0Lipno Steszew
Polonia Sroda Wlkp2-3Lipno Steszew

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lipno Steszew 1453 · Polonia Sroda Wlkp 1593

	Lipno Steszew	Draw	Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Our model	17%	23%	61%
Market	17%	21%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Polonia Sroda Wlkp (rating 1453 vs 1593).
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lipno Steszew	Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.2	2.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	60/0/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.6	3.6 / 7.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

15.25

X4.33

21.48

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.82

2 (-1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 4.20▼	Bet365 4.20
X	4.33 → 4.10▼	Bet365 4.10
2	1.48 → 1.60▲	Bet365 1.60

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:29 +15’	5.25	4.33	1.48
22:07 +2’	4.20▼	4.10▼	1.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lipno Steszew 1–1–1 Polonia Sroda Wlkp

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Poland III Liga	Lipno Steszew	1-1 HT 1-0	Polonia Sroda Wlkp
12/09/25 Poland III Liga	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	2-0 HT 1-0	Lipno Steszew
25/07/25 Europe Friendlies	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	2-3 HT 1-1	Lipno Steszew

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	4	4	0	0	8	1	12
2	Wislanie Jaskowice	4	3	1	0	8	3	10
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	4	2	2	0	6	4	8
4	Wisla Krakow II	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
5	Wisloka Debica	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
6	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Hetman Zamosc	4	1	3	0	7	4	6
8	Moravia Morawica	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
9	Czarni Polaniec	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
10	Naprzod Jedrzejow	4	2	0	2	9	11	6
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
12	JKS Jaroslaw	4	1	1	2	7	8	4
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	4	1	1	2	5	8	4
15	Star Starachowice	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
16	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
17	Korona Kielce II	4	0	1	3	9	12	1
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	4	0	1	3	2	6	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lipno Steszew	Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Kluczevia Stargard	1-4 L	2-1 W
Victoria Wrzesnia	3-1 W	1-0 W
Pogon Nowe Skalmierzyce	0-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Polonia Sroda Wlkp (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lipno Steszew

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
15/08	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	2	1	L
08/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
01/08	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	14	3	D
15/07	Unia Swarzedz Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-3	4	0	L
30/05	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-1	4-3	5	3	W
23/05	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	2	3	W
17/05	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-2	0-5	3	2	L
13/05	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
09/05	Pogon Nowe Skalmierzyce Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L

Polonia Sroda Wlkp

WLWWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	9	7	W
14/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	4-1	4-1	6	1	W
07/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
01/08	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	13	4	W
08/07	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-1	1	0	L
30/05	Pogon Nowe Skalmierzyce Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	2	11	W
23/05	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	8	10	W
17/05	Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal Poland III Liga	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
13/05	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
08/05	Tluchowia Tluchowo Poland III Liga	0-1	3-1	15	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lipno Steszew vs Polonia Sroda Wlkp?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Polonia Sroda Wlkp win (61%). Probabilities: Lipno Steszew 17%, draw 22%, Polonia Sroda Wlkp 61%.

How many goals are expected in Lipno Steszew vs Polonia Sroda Wlkp?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Lipno Steszew 1 · Polonia Sroda Wlkp 2.06), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lipno Steszew vs Polonia Sroda Wlkp?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.