Football · Poland III Liga · 23/08, 13:00

Prediction: Unia Swarzedz vs Wda Swiecie

Team pages: Unia Swarzedz · Wda Swiecie

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.47Total

Unia Swarzedz2.12

Wda Swiecie1.35

1X2

54% 23% 23%

Unia Swarzedz Draw Wda Swiecie

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Unia Swarzedz 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWWLWLLW

Wda Swiecie 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLDWDW

Head-to-head

Unia Swarzedz 1–3–0 Wda Swiecie (4 last)

Unia Swarzedz0-0Wda Swiecie
Wda Swiecie0-3Unia Swarzedz
Wda Swiecie2-2Unia Swarzedz
Unia Swarzedz1-1Wda Swiecie

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Unia Swarzedz 1555 · Wda Swiecie 1489

	Unia Swarzedz	Draw	Wda Swiecie
Our model	54%	23%	23%
Market	54%	23%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.47 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Unia Swarzedz (rating 1555 vs 1489).
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Unia Swarzedz	Wda Swiecie
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.4	1.7 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.7 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 7.6	2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.90

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
19:41 +2’	1.65	3.90	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Unia Swarzedz 1–3–0 Wda Swiecie

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Poland III Liga	Unia Swarzedz	0-0 HT 0-0	Wda Swiecie
23/08/25 Poland III Liga	Wda Swiecie	0-3 HT 0-2	Unia Swarzedz
24/05/25 Poland III Liga	Wda Swiecie	2-2 HT 1-0	Unia Swarzedz
02/11/24 Poland III Liga	Unia Swarzedz	1-1 HT 0-1	Wda Swiecie

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	4	4	0	0	8	1	12
2	Wislanie Jaskowice	4	3	1	0	8	3	10
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	4	2	2	0	6	4	8
4	Wisla Krakow II	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
5	Wisloka Debica	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
6	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Hetman Zamosc	4	1	3	0	7	4	6
8	Moravia Morawica	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
9	Czarni Polaniec	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
10	Naprzod Jedrzejow	4	2	0	2	9	11	6
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
12	JKS Jaroslaw	4	1	1	2	7	8	4
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	4	1	1	2	5	8	4
15	Star Starachowice	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
16	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
17	Korona Kielce II	4	0	1	3	9	12	1
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	4	0	1	3	2	6	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Unia Swarzedz	Wda Swiecie
Notec Czarnkow	0-3 L	1-3 L
Grom Nowy Staw	3-2 W	4-2 W
Lipno Steszew	3-4 L	2-1 W
Blekitni Stargard	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Wda Swiecie (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Unia Swarzedz

DWWWWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-2	3-2	5	6	W
14/08	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	8	3	L
09/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	13	5	L
01/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	6	3	W
30/05	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	3-4	7	3	L
23/05	Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal Poland III Liga	3-0	3-1	4	4	W
17/05	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	8	0	W
13/05	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	11	4	W
08/05	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/05	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	6	7	D

Wda Swiecie

WWLLLLDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-2	4-2	7	6	W
15/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
01/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
30/05	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-2	1-3	5	3	L
24/05	Pogon Szczecin II Poland III Liga	0-6	1-13	1	2	L
16/05	Tluchowia Tluchowo Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
13/05	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
09/05	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-0	3-0	4	2	W
01/05	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	2-2	3-2	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Unia Swarzedz vs Wda Swiecie?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Unia Swarzedz win (54%). Probabilities: Unia Swarzedz 54%, draw 23%, Wda Swiecie 23%.

How many goals are expected in Unia Swarzedz vs Wda Swiecie?

The model expects 3.47 goals (Unia Swarzedz 2.12 · Wda Swiecie 1.35), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Unia Swarzedz vs Wda Swiecie?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.