Football · Poland III Liga · 11/09, 19:00
Prediction: Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs Unia Swarzedz
Team pages: Polonia Sroda Wlkp · Unia Swarzedz
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.56Total
Polonia Sroda Wlkp2.33
Unia Swarzedz1.23
1X2
Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Draw
Unia Swarzedz
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
2-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Polonia Sroda Wlkp
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
Unia Swarzedz
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Polonia Sroda Wlkp
3–1–2
Unia Swarzedz
(6 last)
- Polonia Sroda Wlkp0-1Unia Swarzedz
- Unia Swarzedz0-2Polonia Sroda Wlkp
- Polonia Sroda Wlkp3-0Unia Swarzedz
- Unia Swarzedz2-0Polonia Sroda Wlkp
- Polonia Sroda Wlkp1-0Unia Swarzedz
- Unia Swarzedz1-1Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Polonia Sroda Wlkp 1608 · Unia Swarzedz 1499
| Polonia Sroda Wlkp | Draw | Unia Swarzedz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Market | 61% | 21% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Polonia Sroda Wlkp (rating 1608 vs 1499).
- H2H favours Polonia Sroda Wlkp: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 14.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Polonia Sroda Wlkp | Unia Swarzedz | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.1 / 1.3 | 1.7 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.8 / 7.1 | 2.8 / 7.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.3 / 0.3 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Polonia Sroda Wlkp 3–1–2 Unia Swarzedz
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/26 Poland III Liga | Polonia Sroda Wlkp | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Unia Swarzedz |
| 19/09/25 Poland III Liga | Unia Swarzedz | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Polonia Sroda Wlkp |
| 22/03/25 Poland III Liga | Polonia Sroda Wlkp | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Unia Swarzedz |
| 24/08/24 Poland III Liga | Unia Swarzedz | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Polonia Sroda Wlkp |
| 07/04/24 Poland III Liga | Polonia Sroda Wlkp | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Unia Swarzedz |
| 08/09/23 Poland III Liga | Unia Swarzedz | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Polonia Sroda Wlkp |
Standings · Poland III Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelmianka Chelm | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 21 |
| 2 | KSZO Ostrowiec | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Czarni Polaniec | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | JKS Jaroslaw | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 13 |
| 5 | Wislanie Jaskowice | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Wisla Krakow II | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 11 |
| 7 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 10 |
| 8 | Wisloka Debica | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 9 | Hetman Zamosc | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| 10 | Podlasie Biala Podlaska | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
| 11 | Naprzod Jedrzejow | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 8 |
| 12 | AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 8 |
| 13 | Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| 14 | Wieczysta Krakow II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 7 |
| 15 | Star Starachowice | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 6 |
| 16 | Moravia Morawica | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 6 |
| 17 | Korona Kielce II | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 23 | 4 |
| 18 | Pogon Sokol Lubaczow | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Polonia Sroda Wlkp | Unia Swarzedz |
|---|---|---|
| Grom Nowy Staw | 4-4 D | 3-2 W |
| Lipno Steszew | 3-2 W | 3-4 L |
| Kluczevia Stargard | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal | 4-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Polonia Sroda Wlkp (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Polonia Sroda Wlkp
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga |
2-2 | 4-4 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 28/08 | Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga |
0-1 | 4-3 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 22/08 | Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga |
1-0 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 19/08 | Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga |
2-0 | 4-1 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 14/08 | Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga |
4-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 07/08 | Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 01/08 | Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 13 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Pogon Nowe Skalmierzyce Poland III Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 11 | W |
| 23/05 | Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 10 | W |
| 17/05 | Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal Poland III Liga |
2-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
Unia Swarzedz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 28/08 | Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 23/08 | Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 19/08 | Elana Torun Poland III Liga |
1-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 14/08 | Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 09/08 | KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 13 | 5 | L |
| 01/08 | Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga |
1-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga |
1-1 | 3-4 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal Poland III Liga |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Elana Torun Poland III Liga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs Unia Swarzedz?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Polonia Sroda Wlkp win (61%). Probabilities: Polonia Sroda Wlkp 61%, draw 21%, Unia Swarzedz 18%.
How many goals are expected in Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs Unia Swarzedz?
The model expects 3.56 goals (Polonia Sroda Wlkp 2.33 · Unia Swarzedz 1.23), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs Unia Swarzedz?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.