Football · Poland III Liga · 26/09, 12:00

Prediction: Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs Elana Torun

Team pages: Polonia Sroda Wlkp · Elana Torun

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.05Total

Polonia Sroda Wlkp2.75

Elana Torun1.3

1X2

67% 18% 15%

Polonia Sroda Wlkp Draw Elana Torun

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Polonia Sroda Wlkp 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWDWD

Elana Torun 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDDWLLLLLD

Head-to-head

Polonia Sroda Wlkp 4–2 Elana Torun (6 last)

Elana Torun0-3Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Polonia Sroda Wlkp1-0Elana Torun
Elana Torun3-1Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Polonia Sroda Wlkp4-2Elana Torun
Elana Torun2-3Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Polonia Sroda Wlkp1-3Elana Torun

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Polonia Sroda Wlkp 1616 · Elana Torun 1432

	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	Draw	Elana Torun
Our model	67%	18%	15%
Market	67%	19%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 4.05 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Polonia Sroda Wlkp (rating 1616 vs 1432).
H2H favours Polonia Sroda Wlkp: 4-0-2.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	Elana Torun
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 1.5	1.3 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.9	3.2 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.4	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.75

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:17 +4’	1.33	4.75	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Polonia Sroda Wlkp 4–0–2 Elana Torun

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	0-3 HT 0-0	Polonia Sroda Wlkp
22/08/25 Poland III Liga	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	1-0 HT 0-0	Elana Torun
24/05/25 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	3-1 HT 2-1	Polonia Sroda Wlkp
31/10/24 Poland III Liga	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	4-2 HT 3-2	Elana Torun
16/03/24 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	2-3 HT 1-2	Polonia Sroda Wlkp
23/08/23 Poland III Liga	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	1-3 HT 1-1	Elana Torun

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	9	7	2	0	14	2	23
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	9	5	4	0	14	6	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	9	6	0	3	16	14	18
4	Wislanie Jaskowice	9	5	2	2	14	8	17
5	JKS Jaroslaw	9	5	1	3	24	15	16
6	Wisloka Debica	9	5	1	3	12	11	16
7	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	9	4	2	3	12	9	14
8	Naprzod Jedrzejow	9	4	2	3	20	19	14
9	Wisla Krakow II	9	3	3	3	12	12	12
10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	9	3	2	4	7	9	11
11	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	9	3	2	4	13	17	11
12	Hetman Zamosc	9	2	4	3	16	17	10
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	9	1	6	2	9	10	9
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	9	2	2	5	9	13	8
15	Star Starachowice	9	1	4	4	7	14	7
16	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	9	2	1	6	10	18	7
17	Moravia Morawica	9	2	0	7	9	18	6
18	Korona Kielce II	9	1	2	6	20	26	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	Elana Torun
Notec Czarnkow	0-0 D	1-3 L
Unia Swarzedz	4-3 W	2-3 L
Grom Nowy Staw	4-4 D	2-1 W
Gedania Gdansk	4-3 W	2-2 D
Lipno Steszew	3-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Polonia Sroda Wlkp (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Polonia Sroda Wlkp

WWWWWWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
11/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-1	4-3	5	5	W
05/09	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-2	4-4	7	6	D
28/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-1	4-3	6	7	W
22/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	–	–	W
19/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	9	7	W
14/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	4-1	4-1	6	1	W
07/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
01/08	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
30/05	Pogon Nowe Skalmierzyce Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	2	11	W

Elana Torun

LDDWLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
12/09	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
04/09	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	2	7	L
29/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	1-2	1-5	–	–	L
22/08	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
19/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	2-1	2-3	6	6	L
15/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	11	7	W
08/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	7	2	D
01/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
30/05	Tluchowia Tluchowo Poland III Liga	1-2	2-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs Elana Torun?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Polonia Sroda Wlkp win (67%). Probabilities: Polonia Sroda Wlkp 67%, draw 18%, Elana Torun 15%.

How many goals are expected in Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs Elana Torun?

The model expects 4.05 goals (Polonia Sroda Wlkp 2.75 · Elana Torun 1.3), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs Elana Torun?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.