Football · Poland III Liga · 09/10, 19:00

Prediction: Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs Kluczevia Stargard

Team pages: Polonia Sroda Wlkp · Kluczevia Stargard

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.88Total

Polonia Sroda Wlkp2.33

Kluczevia Stargard1.54

1X2

54% 22% 24%

Polonia Sroda Wlkp Draw Kluczevia Stargard

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Polonia Sroda Wlkp 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDWDDW

Kluczevia Stargard 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWLWWL

Head-to-head

Polonia Sroda Wlkp 2–2 Kluczevia Stargard (4 last)

Kluczevia Stargard1-2Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Polonia Sroda Wlkp1-4Kluczevia Stargard
Polonia Sroda Wlkp0-2Kluczevia Stargard
Kluczevia Stargard0-2Polonia Sroda Wlkp

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Polonia Sroda Wlkp 1593 · Kluczevia Stargard 1538

	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	Draw	Kluczevia Stargard
Our model	55%	21%	24%
Market	54%	22%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.88 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Polonia Sroda Wlkp (rating 1593 vs 1538).
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	Kluczevia Stargard
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 1.6	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	56/11/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 6.4	3.5 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.00

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
08:02 +10’	1.67	4.00	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Polonia Sroda Wlkp 2–0–2 Kluczevia Stargard

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Poland III Liga	Kluczevia Stargard	1-2 HT 1-0	Polonia Sroda Wlkp
07/11/25 Poland III Liga	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	1-4 HT 1-1	Kluczevia Stargard
27/04/22 Poland III Liga	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	0-2 HT 0-1	Kluczevia Stargard
18/09/21 Poland III Liga	Kluczevia Stargard	0-2 HT 0-2	Polonia Sroda Wlkp

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	10	8	2	0	16	3	26
2	Wisloka Debica	11	7	1	3	16	13	22
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	11	5	5	1	16	9	20
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	11	6	2	3	27	21	20
5	Czarni Polaniec	11	6	2	3	18	16	20
6	JKS Jaroslaw	11	5	2	4	27	20	17
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	11	5	2	4	15	11	17
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	11	4	2	5	14	15	14
9	Hetman Zamosc	10	3	4	3	18	18	13
10	Wisla Krakow II	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	11	2	7	2	12	12	13
12	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
13	Korona Kielce II	11	3	2	6	23	27	11
14	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
15	Wieczysta Krakow II	11	3	2	6	10	14	11
16	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	10	3	2	5	14	21	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	2	2	7	13	22	8
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	11	2	1	8	11	21	7

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	Kluczevia Stargard
Wda Swiecie	4-0 W	2-1 W
Elana Torun	2-2 D	2-1 W
Notec Czarnkow	0-0 D	1-3 L
Unia Swarzedz	4-3 W	2-0 W
Grom Nowy Staw	4-4 D	4-3 W
Gedania Gdansk	4-3 W	2-2 D
Lipno Steszew	3-2 W	4-1 W
Blekitni Stargard	4-1 W	2-1 W
Chemik Bydgoszcz	4-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	6 W 3 D 0 L	6 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Polonia Sroda Wlkp (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Polonia Sroda Wlkp

WWWWWDWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	7	5	W
26/09	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
19/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
11/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-1	4-3	5	5	W
05/09	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-2	4-4	7	6	D
28/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-1	4-3	6	7	W
22/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	–	–	W
19/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	–	–	W
14/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	4-1	4-1	–	–	W
07/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

Kluczevia Stargard

LWWDWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
19/09	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
12/09	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
05/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
28/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
23/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-1	4-3	–	–	W
19/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-2	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	–	–	W
08/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
01/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	–	0-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs Kluczevia Stargard?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Polonia Sroda Wlkp win (54%). Probabilities: Polonia Sroda Wlkp 54%, draw 22%, Kluczevia Stargard 24%.

How many goals are expected in Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs Kluczevia Stargard?

The model expects 3.88 goals (Polonia Sroda Wlkp 2.33 · Kluczevia Stargard 1.54), with a 56% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs Kluczevia Stargard?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.