Football · Poland III Liga · 26/09, 12:00

Prediction: KTS-K Luzino vs Notec Czarnkow

Team pages: KTS-K Luzino · Notec Czarnkow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.48Total

KTS-K Luzino2.3

Notec Czarnkow1.18

1X2

62% 20% 18%

KTS-K Luzino Draw Notec Czarnkow

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

KTS-K Luzino 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLWWWW

Notec Czarnkow 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWLWLD

Head-to-head

KTS-K Luzino 2–2 Notec Czarnkow (4 last)

KTS-K Luzino3-0Notec Czarnkow
Notec Czarnkow0-2KTS-K Luzino
KTS-K Luzino1-2Notec Czarnkow
Notec Czarnkow5-2KTS-K Luzino

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KTS-K Luzino 1574 · Notec Czarnkow 1513

	KTS-K Luzino	Draw	Notec Czarnkow
Our model	62%	21%	17%
Market	62%	20%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.48 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KTS-K Luzino (rating 1574 vs 1513).
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KTS-K Luzino	Notec Czarnkow
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 1.2	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.1	2.2 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:11 +10’	1.44	4.50	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KTS-K Luzino 2–0–2 Notec Czarnkow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Poland III Liga	KTS-K Luzino	3-0 HT 3-0	Notec Czarnkow
31/08/25 Poland III Liga	Notec Czarnkow	0-2 HT 0-1	KTS-K Luzino
29/03/24 Poland III Liga	KTS-K Luzino	1-2 HT 0-1	Notec Czarnkow
02/09/23 Poland III Liga	Notec Czarnkow	5-2 HT 3-1	KTS-K Luzino

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	9	7	2	0	14	2	23
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	9	5	4	0	14	6	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	9	6	0	3	16	14	18
4	Wislanie Jaskowice	9	5	2	2	14	8	17
5	JKS Jaroslaw	9	5	1	3	24	15	16
6	Wisloka Debica	9	5	1	3	12	11	16
7	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	9	4	2	3	12	9	14
8	Naprzod Jedrzejow	9	4	2	3	20	19	14
9	Wisla Krakow II	9	3	3	3	12	12	12
10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	9	3	2	4	7	9	11
11	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	9	3	2	4	13	17	11
12	Hetman Zamosc	9	2	4	3	16	17	10
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	9	1	6	2	9	10	9
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	9	2	2	5	9	13	8
15	Star Starachowice	9	1	4	4	7	14	7
16	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	9	2	1	6	10	18	7
17	Moravia Morawica	9	2	0	7	9	18	6
18	Korona Kielce II	9	1	2	6	20	26	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KTS-K Luzino	Notec Czarnkow
Unia Swarzedz	3-1 W	3-0 W
Grom Nowy Staw	5-1 W	0-2 L
Gedania Gdansk	4-0 W	3-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: KTS-K Luzino (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KTS-K Luzino

LWDWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-1	3-1	4	5	W
11/09	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-0	5-1	2	0	W
05/09	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	8	4	W
28/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
23/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
19/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
14/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	3	5	W
09/08	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
01/08	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-1	6-2	–	–	W
03/06	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	1	3	L

Notec Czarnkow

WLLWWWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	10	2	L
05/09	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
28/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	6	2	L
22/08	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
19/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
14/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
08/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
31/07	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-2	3-5	–	–	L
30/05	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	2-1	3-1	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KTS-K Luzino vs Notec Czarnkow?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KTS-K Luzino win (62%). Probabilities: KTS-K Luzino 62%, draw 20%, Notec Czarnkow 18%.

How many goals are expected in KTS-K Luzino vs Notec Czarnkow?

The model expects 3.48 goals (KTS-K Luzino 2.3 · Notec Czarnkow 1.18), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in KTS-K Luzino vs Notec Czarnkow?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.