Football · Poland III Liga · 03/10, 13:00

Prediction: Elana Torun vs KTS-K Luzino

Team pages: Elana Torun · KTS-K Luzino

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

Elana Torun1.27

KTS-K Luzino2.07

1X2

22% 23% 55%

Elana Torun Draw KTS-K Luzino

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Elana Torun 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DDWLLLLLDD

KTS-K Luzino 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWWWWW

Head-to-head

Elana Torun 3–1 KTS-K Luzino (4 last)

KTS-K Luzino2-1Elana Torun
Elana Torun2-1KTS-K Luzino
Elana Torun3-0KTS-K Luzino
KTS-K Luzino1-2Elana Torun

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Elana Torun 1436 · KTS-K Luzino 1585

	Elana Torun	Draw	KTS-K Luzino
Our model	22%	23%	55%
Market	22%	22%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KTS-K Luzino (rating 1436 vs 1585).
H2H favours Elana Torun: 3-0-1.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Elana Torun	KTS-K Luzino
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.1	3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.6	3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.00

X4.00

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:03 +13’	4.00	4.00	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Elana Torun 3–0–1 KTS-K Luzino

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Poland III Liga	KTS-K Luzino	2-1 HT 1-1	Elana Torun
28/09/25 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	2-1 HT 0-1	KTS-K Luzino
13/04/24 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	3-0 HT 1-0	KTS-K Luzino
16/09/23 Poland III Liga	KTS-K Luzino	1-2 HT 0-2	Elana Torun

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	10	8	2	0	16	3	26
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	10	5	4	1	15	8	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	10	6	1	3	17	15	19
4	Wisloka Debica	10	6	1	3	14	12	19
5	JKS Jaroslaw	10	5	2	3	26	17	17
6	Wislanie Jaskowice	10	5	2	3	15	10	17
7	Naprzod Jedrzejow	10	5	2	3	24	20	17
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
9	Hetman Zamosc	10	3	4	3	18	18	13
10	Wisla Krakow II	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	10	2	6	2	10	10	12
12	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
13	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
14	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	10	3	2	5	14	21	11
15	Korona Kielce II	10	2	2	6	21	26	8
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	10	2	2	6	9	14	8
17	Moravia Morawica	10	2	1	7	11	20	7
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	10	2	1	7	10	19	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Elana Torun	KTS-K Luzino
Notec Czarnkow	1-3 L	2-0 W
Unia Swarzedz	2-3 L	3-1 W
Grom Nowy Staw	2-1 W	5-1 W
Gedania Gdansk	2-2 D	4-0 W
Lipno Steszew	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: KTS-K Luzino (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Elana Torun

DDWLLLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	8	3	D
19/09	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
12/09	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
04/09	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	2	7	L
29/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	1-2	1-5	–	–	L
22/08	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
19/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	2-1	2-3	6	6	L
15/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	11	7	W
08/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	7	2	D
01/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D

KTS-K Luzino

WDWWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	8	8	W
19/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-1	3-1	4	5	W
11/09	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-0	5-1	2	0	W
05/09	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	8	4	W
28/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
23/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
19/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
14/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	3	5	W
09/08	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
01/08	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-1	6-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Elana Torun vs KTS-K Luzino?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KTS-K Luzino win (55%). Probabilities: Elana Torun 22%, draw 23%, KTS-K Luzino 55%.

How many goals are expected in Elana Torun vs KTS-K Luzino?

The model expects 3.34 goals (Elana Torun 1.27 · KTS-K Luzino 2.07), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Elana Torun vs KTS-K Luzino?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.