Football · Poland III Liga · 10/10, 14:00

Prediction: Blekitni Stargard vs Lipno Steszew

Team pages: Blekitni Stargard · Lipno Steszew

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.68Total

Blekitni Stargard2.46

Lipno Steszew1.22

1X2

64% 19% 17%

Blekitni Stargard Draw Lipno Steszew

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Blekitni Stargard 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLWDDW

Lipno Steszew 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLWDL

Head-to-head

Blekitni Stargard 2–0 Lipno Steszew (2 last)

Lipno Steszew1-2Blekitni Stargard
Blekitni Stargard3-1Lipno Steszew

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Blekitni Stargard 1546 · Lipno Steszew 1407

	Blekitni Stargard	Draw	Lipno Steszew
Our model	64%	20%	17%
Market	64%	19%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.68 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Blekitni Stargard (rating 1546 vs 1407).
H2H favours Blekitni Stargard: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Blekitni Stargard	Lipno Steszew
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.8	1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 1	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.4	2.7 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.75

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:00 +2’	1.40	4.75	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Blekitni Stargard 2–0–0 Lipno Steszew

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Poland III Liga	Lipno Steszew	1-2 HT 1-2	Blekitni Stargard
23/08/25 Poland III Liga	Blekitni Stargard	3-1 HT 2-1	Lipno Steszew

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	11	8	3	0	18	5	27
2	Wisloka Debica	11	7	1	3	16	13	22
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	11	5	5	1	16	9	20
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	11	6	2	3	27	21	20
5	Czarni Polaniec	11	6	2	3	18	16	20
6	JKS Jaroslaw	11	5	2	4	27	20	17
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	11	5	2	4	15	11	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	11	3	5	3	20	20	14
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	11	4	2	5	14	15	14
10	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	11	4	2	5	17	21	14
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	11	2	7	2	12	12	13
12	Wisla Krakow II	11	3	4	4	13	16	13
13	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
14	Korona Kielce II	11	3	2	6	23	27	11
15	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	11	3	2	6	10	14	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	2	2	7	13	22	8
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	11	2	1	8	11	21	7

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Blekitni Stargard	Lipno Steszew
Chemik Bydgoszcz	3-3 D	0-1 L
Victoria Wrzesnia	1-1 D	1-1 D
Baltyk Koszalin	2-0 W	2-1 W
KSS Kotwica Kornik	2-4 L	1-4 L
Flota Swinoujscie	5-1 W	1-3 L
KTS-K Luzino	2-1 W	1-2 L
Polonia Sroda Wlkp	1-4 L	2-3 L
Lech Poznan II	4-2 W	0-1 L
Kluczevia Stargard	1-2 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Blekitni Stargard (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Blekitni Stargard

LWLWWLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	4-0	5-0	1	2	W
26/09	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	3-2	3-3	1	2	D
19/09	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
12/09	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
05/09	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-2	2-4	8	5	L
29/08	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	3-0	5-1	–	–	W
23/08	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
19/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	–	–	L
15/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	4-2	4-2	–	–	W
08/08	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L

Lipno Steszew

LLLLLLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
26/09	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
19/09	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
12/09	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	7	1	L
05/09	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	6	5	L
28/08	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
22/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-1	2-3	–	–	L
19/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
15/08	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	–	–	L
08/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Blekitni Stargard vs Lipno Steszew?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Blekitni Stargard win (64%). Probabilities: Blekitni Stargard 64%, draw 19%, Lipno Steszew 17%.

How many goals are expected in Blekitni Stargard vs Lipno Steszew?

The model expects 3.68 goals (Blekitni Stargard 2.46 · Lipno Steszew 1.22), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Blekitni Stargard vs Lipno Steszew?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.