Football · Poland III Liga · 14/08, 18:00

Prediction: Unia Swarzedz vs Notec Czarnkow

Team pages: Unia Swarzedz · Notec Czarnkow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

Unia Swarzedz1.99

Notec Czarnkow1.35

1X2

51% 24% 25%

Unia Swarzedz Draw Notec Czarnkow

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Unia Swarzedz 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Notec Czarnkow 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Unia Swarzedz 3–1–2 Notec Czarnkow (6 last)

Notec Czarnkow0-1Unia Swarzedz
Unia Swarzedz3-1Notec Czarnkow
Unia Swarzedz2-3Notec Czarnkow
Notec Czarnkow1-1Unia Swarzedz
Unia Swarzedz3-2Notec Czarnkow
Notec Czarnkow3-1Unia Swarzedz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Unia Swarzedz 1557 · Notec Czarnkow 1466

	Unia Swarzedz	Draw	Notec Czarnkow
Our model	51%	24%	25%
Market	51%	24%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Unia Swarzedz (rating 1557 vs 1466).
H2H favours Unia Swarzedz: 3-1-2.
High corners: 13.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Unia Swarzedz	Notec Czarnkow
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.7	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 7.2	2 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.75

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:25 +16’	1.75	3.75	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Unia Swarzedz 3–1–2 Notec Czarnkow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Poland III Liga	Notec Czarnkow	0-1 HT 0-1	Unia Swarzedz
18/10/25 Poland III Liga	Unia Swarzedz	3-1 HT 1-0	Notec Czarnkow
23/11/24 Poland III Liga	Unia Swarzedz	2-3 HT 1-2	Notec Czarnkow
03/08/24 Poland III Liga	Notec Czarnkow	1-1 HT 1-0	Unia Swarzedz
27/04/24 Poland III Liga	Unia Swarzedz	3-2 HT 0-1	Notec Czarnkow
30/09/23 Poland III Liga	Notec Czarnkow	3-1 HT 0-1	Unia Swarzedz

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Wislanie Jaskowice	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
2	Wisla Krakow II	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
3	Czarni Polaniec	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
4	Chelmianka Chelm	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
5	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
5	Wisloka Debica	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
7	KSZO Ostrowiec	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
8	Moravia Morawica	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Naprzod Jedrzejow	2	1	0	1	5	6	3
10	Hetman Zamosc	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
11	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
13	JKS Jaroslaw	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
14	Star Starachowice	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
16	Korona Kielce II	2	0	0	2	5	7	0
17	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
18	Wieczysta Krakow II	2	0	0	2	2	6	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Unia Swarzedz	Notec Czarnkow
Grom Nowy Staw	3-2 W	0-2 L
Lipno Steszew	3-0 W	0-1 L
Elana Torun	4-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Unia Swarzedz (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Unia Swarzedz

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	13	5	L
01/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	6	3	W
25/07	KSS Kotwica Kornik Europe Friendlies	0-1	2-1	6	1	W
17/07	Sokol Kleczew Europe Friendlies	0-3	1-7	4	1	L
15/07	Lipno Steszew Europe Friendlies	1-0	3-0	6	0	W
30/05	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	3-4	7	3	L
23/05	Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal Poland III Liga	3-0	3-1	4	4	W
17/05	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	8	0	W
13/05	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	11	4	W
08/05	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

Notec Czarnkow

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
31/07	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-2	3-5	6	5	L
30/05	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	2-1	3-1	8	3	W
23/05	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	3-0	3-0	13	1	W
17/05	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
13/05	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
08/05	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
01/05	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
25/04	Pogon Nowe Skalmierzyce Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
18/04	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-0	0-3	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Unia Swarzedz vs Notec Czarnkow?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Unia Swarzedz win (51%). Probabilities: Unia Swarzedz 51%, draw 24%, Notec Czarnkow 25%.

How many goals are expected in Unia Swarzedz vs Notec Czarnkow?

The model expects 3.34 goals (Unia Swarzedz 1.99 · Notec Czarnkow 1.35), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Unia Swarzedz vs Notec Czarnkow?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.