Football · Poland III Liga · 22/08, 16:00

Prediction: Notec Czarnkow vs Elana Torun

Team pages: Notec Czarnkow · Elana Torun

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

Notec Czarnkow1.94

Elana Torun1.31

1X2

51% 24% 25%

Notec Czarnkow Draw Elana Torun

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Notec Czarnkow 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDWWLLWW

Elana Torun 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWDDWL

Head-to-head

Notec Czarnkow 1–2–2 Elana Torun (5 last)

Elana Torun0-3Notec Czarnkow
Elana Torun1-1Notec Czarnkow
Notec Czarnkow3-4Elana Torun
Notec Czarnkow0-0Elana Torun
Elana Torun1-0Notec Czarnkow

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Notec Czarnkow 1529 · Elana Torun 1440

	Notec Czarnkow	Draw	Elana Torun
Our model	51%	24%	25%
Market	51%	24%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Notec Czarnkow (rating 1529 vs 1440).
H2H favours Elana Torun: 2-2-1.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Notec Czarnkow	Elana Torun
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1.1 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.6 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6.6	2.8 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.80

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:29 +2’	1.75	3.80	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Notec Czarnkow 1–2–2 Elana Torun

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	0-3 HT 0-3	Notec Czarnkow
01/05/25 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	1-1 HT 0-0	Notec Czarnkow
05/10/24 Poland III Liga	Notec Czarnkow	3-4 HT 1-0	Elana Torun
06/04/24 Poland III Liga	Notec Czarnkow	0-0 HT 0-0	Elana Torun
09/09/23 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	1-0 HT 0-0	Notec Czarnkow

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	4	4	0	0	8	1	12
2	Wislanie Jaskowice	4	3	1	0	8	3	10
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	4	2	2	0	6	4	8
4	Wisla Krakow II	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
5	Wisloka Debica	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
6	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Hetman Zamosc	4	1	3	0	7	4	6
8	Moravia Morawica	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
9	Czarni Polaniec	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
10	Naprzod Jedrzejow	4	2	0	2	9	11	6
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
12	JKS Jaroslaw	4	1	1	2	7	8	4
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	4	1	1	2	5	8	4
15	Star Starachowice	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
16	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
17	Korona Kielce II	4	0	1	3	9	12	1
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	4	0	1	3	2	6	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Notec Czarnkow	Elana Torun
Unia Swarzedz	3-0 W	2-3 L
Grom Nowy Staw	0-2 L	2-1 W
Gedania Gdansk	3-5 L	2-2 D
Lipno Steszew	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Elana Torun (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Notec Czarnkow

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
14/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
08/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
31/07	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-2	3-5	6	5	L
30/05	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	2-1	3-1	8	3	W
23/05	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	3-0	3-0	13	1	W
17/05	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
13/05	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
08/05	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
01/05	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	6	3	L

Elana Torun

LLLLLWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	2-1	2-3	6	6	L
15/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	11	7	W
08/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	7	2	D
01/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
04/07	Unia Wabrzezno Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-1	6	1	W
30/05	Tluchowia Tluchowo Poland III Liga	1-2	2-5	–	–	L
23/05	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-3	0-3	0	1	L
17/05	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	1	0	L
13/05	Pogon Szczecin II Poland III Liga	0-2	0-4	1	3	L
09/05	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Notec Czarnkow vs Elana Torun?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Notec Czarnkow win (51%). Probabilities: Notec Czarnkow 51%, draw 24%, Elana Torun 25%.

How many goals are expected in Notec Czarnkow vs Elana Torun?

The model expects 3.24 goals (Notec Czarnkow 1.94 · Elana Torun 1.31), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Notec Czarnkow vs Elana Torun?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.