Football · Poland III Liga · 05/09, 17:00

Prediction: Lipno Steszew vs Flota Swinoujscie

Team pages: Lipno Steszew · Flota Swinoujscie

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

Lipno Steszew1.52

Flota Swinoujscie1.79

1X2

32% 25% 43%

Lipno Steszew Draw Flota Swinoujscie

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Lipno Steszew 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLWWDLLLLL

Flota Swinoujscie 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLLWWWDL

Head-to-head

Lipno Steszew 0–2 Flota Swinoujscie (2 last)

Lipno Steszew2-3Flota Swinoujscie
Flota Swinoujscie4-0Lipno Steszew

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lipno Steszew 1435 · Flota Swinoujscie 1517

	Lipno Steszew	Draw	Flota Swinoujscie
Our model	32%	25%	43%
Market	32%	25%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Flota Swinoujscie (rating 1435 vs 1517).
H2H favours Flota Swinoujscie: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lipno Steszew	Flota Swinoujscie
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.2	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.9	1 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	5 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.60

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:59 +12’	2.80	3.60	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lipno Steszew 0–0–2 Flota Swinoujscie

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Poland III Liga	Lipno Steszew	2-3 HT 0-3	Flota Swinoujscie
30/08/25 Poland III Liga	Flota Swinoujscie	4-0 HT 2-0	Lipno Steszew

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	6	6	0	0	11	1	18
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
3	Wislanie Jaskowice	6	4	1	1	9	4	13
4	Czarni Polaniec	6	4	0	2	9	8	12
5	Wisla Krakow II	6	3	2	1	9	6	11
6	JKS Jaroslaw	6	3	1	2	12	8	10
7	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	6	2	2	2	5	5	8
8	Wieczysta Krakow II	6	2	1	3	8	9	7
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	6	2	1	3	7	8	7
10	Wisloka Debica	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
11	Naprzod Jedrzejow	6	2	1	3	9	13	7
12	Hetman Zamosc	6	1	3	2	9	9	6
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	6	1	3	2	6	7	6
14	Moravia Morawica	6	2	0	4	6	12	6
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	6	1	2	3	8	13	5
16	Star Starachowice	6	1	2	3	5	11	5
17	Korona Kielce II	6	1	1	4	16	17	4
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	6	1	1	4	6	9	4

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lipno Steszew

WLWWDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
22/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-1	2-3	–	–	L
19/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
15/08	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	2	1	L
08/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
01/08	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	14	3	D
30/05	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-1	4-3	5	3	W
23/05	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	2	3	W
17/05	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-2	0-5	3	2	L
13/05	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	1	4	W

Flota Swinoujscie

WLDLLWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-3	1-5	–	–	L
22/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-0	5-0	–	–	W
15/08	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
08/08	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
01/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
30/05	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
22/05	Cartusia Kartuzy Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	6	9	D
17/05	Pogon Szczecin II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
13/05	Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal Poland III Liga	2-1	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lipno Steszew vs Flota Swinoujscie?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Flota Swinoujscie win (43%). Probabilities: Lipno Steszew 32%, draw 25%, Flota Swinoujscie 43%.

How many goals are expected in Lipno Steszew vs Flota Swinoujscie?

The model expects 3.31 goals (Lipno Steszew 1.52 · Flota Swinoujscie 1.79), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lipno Steszew vs Flota Swinoujscie?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.