Football · Poland III Liga · 04/09, 20:08

Prediction: Elana Torun vs Wda Swiecie

Team pages: Elana Torun · Wda Swiecie

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.53Total

Elana Torun1.67

Wda Swiecie1.86

1X2

34% 24% 42%

Elana Torun Draw Wda Swiecie

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Elana Torun 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLDDWLLL

Wda Swiecie 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLLLDWDWWW

Head-to-head

Elana Torun 3–1–1 Wda Swiecie (5 last)

Elana Torun0-1Wda Swiecie
Wda Swiecie2-5Elana Torun
Wda Swiecie1-1Elana Torun
Elana Torun2-0Wda Swiecie
Elana Torun4-0Wda Swiecie

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Elana Torun 1434 · Wda Swiecie 1506

	Elana Torun	Draw	Wda Swiecie
Our model	34%	24%	42%
Market	34%	24%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wda Swiecie (rating 1434 vs 1506).
H2H favours Elana Torun: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Elana Torun	Wda Swiecie
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 3.1	1.4 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.4	0.6 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5	2.5 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.70

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:06 +10’	2.63	3.70	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Elana Torun 3–1–1 Wda Swiecie

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	0-1 HT 0-0	Wda Swiecie
14/09/25 Poland III Liga	Wda Swiecie	2-5 HT 0-3	Elana Torun
11/04/25 Poland III Liga	Wda Swiecie	1-1 HT 0-1	Elana Torun
14/09/24 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	2-0 HT 0-0	Wda Swiecie
01/10/22 Poland IV Liga	Elana Torun	4-0 HT 2-0	Wda Swiecie

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	6	6	0	0	11	1	18
2	Wislanie Jaskowice	6	4	1	1	9	4	13
3	Czarni Polaniec	6	4	0	2	9	8	12
4	KSZO Ostrowiec	5	3	2	0	7	4	11
5	JKS Jaroslaw	6	3	1	2	12	8	10
6	Wisla Krakow II	5	3	1	1	9	6	10
7	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	6	2	2	2	5	5	8
8	Wieczysta Krakow II	6	2	1	3	8	9	7
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	6	2	1	3	7	8	7
10	Wisloka Debica	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
11	Hetman Zamosc	6	1	3	2	9	9	6
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	6	1	3	2	6	7	6
13	Moravia Morawica	5	2	0	3	6	8	6
14	Naprzod Jedrzejow	5	2	0	3	9	13	6
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	6	1	2	3	8	13	5
16	Star Starachowice	6	1	2	3	5	11	5
17	Korona Kielce II	6	1	1	4	16	17	4
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	6	1	1	4	6	9	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Elana Torun	Wda Swiecie
Notec Czarnkow	1-3 L	2-1 W
Unia Swarzedz	2-3 L	1-0 W
Grom Nowy Staw	2-1 W	4-2 W
Gedania Gdansk	2-2 D	1-1 D
Lipno Steszew	1-1 D	2-1 W
Tluchowia Tluchowo	2-5 L	1-2 L
Pogon Szczecin II	0-4 L	1-13 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Wda Swiecie (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Elana Torun

LLLLDDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	1-2	1-5	–	–	L
22/08	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
19/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	2-1	2-3	6	6	L
15/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	11	7	W
08/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	7	2	D
01/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
30/05	Tluchowia Tluchowo Poland III Liga	1-2	2-5	–	–	L
23/05	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-3	0-3	0	1	L
17/05	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	1	0	L
13/05	Pogon Szczecin II Poland III Liga	0-2	0-4	1	3	L

Wda Swiecie

LLLLDWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	11	2	W
23/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
19/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-2	4-2	7	6	W
15/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
01/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
30/05	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-2	1-3	5	3	L
24/05	Pogon Szczecin II Poland III Liga	0-6	1-13	1	2	L
16/05	Tluchowia Tluchowo Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
13/05	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Elana Torun vs Wda Swiecie?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Wda Swiecie win (42%). Probabilities: Elana Torun 34%, draw 24%, Wda Swiecie 42%.

How many goals are expected in Elana Torun vs Wda Swiecie?

The model expects 3.53 goals (Elana Torun 1.67 · Wda Swiecie 1.86), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Elana Torun vs Wda Swiecie?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.