Football · Poland III Liga · 03/10, 14:00

Prediction: Lipno Steszew vs Chemik Bydgoszcz

Team pages: Lipno Steszew

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Lipno Steszew1.71

Chemik Bydgoszcz1.58

1X2

40% 25% 35%

Lipno Steszew Draw Chemik Bydgoszcz

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Lipno Steszew 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Chemik Bydgoszcz 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lipno Steszew 1429 · Chemik Bydgoszcz 1451

	Lipno Steszew	Draw	Chemik Bydgoszcz
Our model	40%	25%	35%
Market	40%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lipno Steszew	Chemik Bydgoszcz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.2	1.6 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	0.7 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	0/33/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.7	2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.50

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:16 +6’	2.25	3.50	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	10	8	2	0	16	3	26
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	10	5	4	1	15	8	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	10	6	1	3	17	15	19
4	Wisloka Debica	10	6	1	3	14	12	19
5	JKS Jaroslaw	10	5	2	3	26	17	17
6	Wislanie Jaskowice	10	5	2	3	15	10	17
7	Naprzod Jedrzejow	10	5	2	3	24	20	17
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
9	Hetman Zamosc	10	3	4	3	18	18	13
10	Wisla Krakow II	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	10	2	6	2	10	10	12
12	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
13	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
14	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	10	3	2	5	14	21	11
15	Korona Kielce II	10	2	2	6	21	26	8
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	10	2	2	6	9	14	8
17	Moravia Morawica	10	2	1	7	11	20	7
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	10	2	1	7	10	19	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lipno Steszew	Chemik Bydgoszcz
Victoria Wrzesnia	1-1 D	2-2 D
Baltyk Koszalin	2-1 W	2-2 D
KSS Kotwica Kornik	1-4 L	1-4 L
Flota Swinoujscie	1-3 L	1-1 D
KTS-K Luzino	1-2 L	1-3 L
Polonia Sroda Wlkp	2-3 L	1-4 L
Lech Poznan II	0-1 L	1-1 D
Kluczevia Stargard	1-4 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	1 W 4 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lipno Steszew

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
19/09	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
12/09	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	7	1	L
05/09	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	6	5	L
28/08	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
22/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-1	2-3	–	–	L
19/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
15/08	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	2	1	L
08/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
01/08	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D

Chemik Bydgoszcz

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-3	3-3	1	2	D
19/09	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
12/09	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	11	4	D
05/09	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
28/08	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	3	3	L
22/08	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
19/08	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
14/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-4	1-4	5	1	L
08/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
01/08	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	–	3-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lipno Steszew vs Chemik Bydgoszcz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lipno Steszew win (40%). Probabilities: Lipno Steszew 40%, draw 25%, Chemik Bydgoszcz 35%.

How many goals are expected in Lipno Steszew vs Chemik Bydgoszcz?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Lipno Steszew 1.71 · Chemik Bydgoszcz 1.58), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Lipno Steszew vs Chemik Bydgoszcz?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.