Football · Poland III Liga · 03/10, 14:00

Prediction: Notec Czarnkow vs Flota Swinoujscie

Team pages: Notec Czarnkow · Flota Swinoujscie

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Notec Czarnkow1.97

Flota Swinoujscie1.21

1X2

54% 24% 22%

Notec Czarnkow Draw Flota Swinoujscie

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Notec Czarnkow 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWWLWLDL

Flota Swinoujscie 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWDLWDLL

Head-to-head

Notec Czarnkow 3–1–2 Flota Swinoujscie (6 last)

Flota Swinoujscie2-4Notec Czarnkow
Notec Czarnkow1-1Flota Swinoujscie
Notec Czarnkow4-0Flota Swinoujscie
Flota Swinoujscie2-1Notec Czarnkow
Notec Czarnkow2-3Flota Swinoujscie
Flota Swinoujscie1-3Notec Czarnkow

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Notec Czarnkow (rating 1514 vs 1456).
H2H favours Notec Czarnkow: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Notec Czarnkow	Flota Swinoujscie
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.4	3.3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.83

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:46

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.23 → 2.23	Pinn 2.23
X	3.37 → 3.37	Pinn 3.37
2	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:13 +94’	2.23	3.37	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Notec Czarnkow 3–1–2 Flota Swinoujscie

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/03/26 Poland III Liga	Flota Swinoujscie	2-4 HT 2-2	Notec Czarnkow
02/08/25 Poland III Liga	Notec Czarnkow	1-1 HT 0-0	Flota Swinoujscie
29/03/25 Poland III Liga	Notec Czarnkow	4-0 HT 3-0	Flota Swinoujscie
31/08/24 Poland III Liga	Flota Swinoujscie	2-1 HT 1-0	Notec Czarnkow
20/04/24 Poland III Liga	Notec Czarnkow	2-3 HT 1-0	Flota Swinoujscie
23/09/23 Poland III Liga	Flota Swinoujscie	1-3 HT 0-3	Notec Czarnkow

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	10	8	2	0	16	3	26
2	Wisloka Debica	11	7	1	3	16	13	22
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	10	5	4	1	15	8	19
4	Czarni Polaniec	10	6	1	3	17	15	19
5	JKS Jaroslaw	10	5	2	3	26	17	17
6	Wislanie Jaskowice	10	5	2	3	15	10	17
7	Naprzod Jedrzejow	10	5	2	3	24	20	17
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
9	Hetman Zamosc	10	3	4	3	18	18	13
10	Wisla Krakow II	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	10	2	6	2	10	10	12
12	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
13	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
14	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	10	3	2	5	14	21	11
15	Korona Kielce II	10	2	2	6	21	26	8
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	10	2	2	6	9	14	8
17	Moravia Morawica	10	2	1	7	11	20	7
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	11	2	1	8	11	21	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Notec Czarnkow	Flota Swinoujscie
KKS 1925 Kalisz	1-0 W	0-1 L
Unia Swarzedz	3-0 W	0-2 L
Grom Nowy Staw	0-2 L	0-5 L
Gedania Gdansk	3-5 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Notec Czarnkow (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Notec Czarnkow

LLWWWLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	2	8	L
19/09	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	10	2	L
05/09	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
28/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	6	2	L
22/08	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
19/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
14/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
08/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
31/07	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-2	3-5	–	–	L

Flota Swinoujscie

LWWWDLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
19/09	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	0-5	0-5	4	5	L
12/09	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
29/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-3	1-5	–	–	L
22/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-0	5-0	–	–	W
15/08	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
08/08	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
01/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Notec Czarnkow vs Flota Swinoujscie?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Notec Czarnkow win (54%). Probabilities: Notec Czarnkow 54%, draw 24%, Flota Swinoujscie 22%.

How many goals are expected in Notec Czarnkow vs Flota Swinoujscie?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Notec Czarnkow 1.97 · Flota Swinoujscie 1.21), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Notec Czarnkow vs Flota Swinoujscie?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.