Football · Poland III Liga · 09/10, 18:00

Prediction: Elana Torun vs Flota Swinoujscie

Team pages: Elana Torun · Flota Swinoujscie

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Elana Torun1.76

Flota Swinoujscie1.53

1X2

43% 24% 33%

Elana Torun Draw Flota Swinoujscie

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Elana Torun 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Flota Swinoujscie 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWDLLL

Head-to-head

Elana Torun 1–2–3 Flota Swinoujscie (6 last)

Flota Swinoujscie2-2Elana Torun
Elana Torun3-2Flota Swinoujscie
Elana Torun0-2Flota Swinoujscie
Flota Swinoujscie3-1Elana Torun
Elana Torun0-0Flota Swinoujscie
Flota Swinoujscie3-0Elana Torun

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Elana Torun 1468 · Flota Swinoujscie 1478

	Elana Torun	Draw	Flota Swinoujscie
Our model	42%	25%	33%
Market	43%	24%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Flota Swinoujscie: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Elana Torun	Flota Swinoujscie
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.1	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.5	3.7 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.75

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
07:48 +22’	2.10	3.75	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Elana Torun 1–2–3 Flota Swinoujscie

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Poland III Liga	Flota Swinoujscie	2-2 HT 1-0	Elana Torun
06/09/25 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	3-2 HT 0-2	Flota Swinoujscie
01/03/25 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	0-2 HT 0-1	Flota Swinoujscie
10/08/24 Poland III Liga	Flota Swinoujscie	3-1 HT 2-0	Elana Torun
04/05/24 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	0-0 HT 0-0	Flota Swinoujscie
07/10/23 Poland III Liga	Flota Swinoujscie	3-0 HT 2-0	Elana Torun

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	10	8	2	0	16	3	26
2	Wisloka Debica	11	7	1	3	16	13	22
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	11	5	5	1	16	9	20
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	11	6	2	3	27	21	20
5	Czarni Polaniec	11	6	2	3	18	16	20
6	JKS Jaroslaw	11	5	2	4	27	20	17
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	11	5	2	4	15	11	17
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	11	4	2	5	14	15	14
9	Hetman Zamosc	10	3	4	3	18	18	13
10	Wisla Krakow II	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	11	2	7	2	12	12	13
12	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
13	Korona Kielce II	11	3	2	6	23	27	11
14	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
15	Wieczysta Krakow II	11	3	2	6	10	14	11
16	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	10	3	2	5	14	21	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	2	2	7	13	22	8
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	11	2	1	8	11	21	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Elana Torun	Flota Swinoujscie
Notec Czarnkow	1-3 L	0-3 L
Unia Swarzedz	2-3 L	0-2 L
Grom Nowy Staw	2-1 W	0-5 L
Gedania Gdansk	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Elana Torun (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Elana Torun

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	4	7	W
26/09	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	8	3	D
19/09	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
12/09	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
04/09	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	2	7	L
29/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	1-2	1-5	–	–	L
22/08	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
19/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	2-1	2-3	–	–	L
15/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
08/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	7	2	D

Flota Swinoujscie

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
26/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
19/09	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	0-5	0-5	4	5	L
12/09	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
29/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-3	1-5	–	–	L
22/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-0	5-0	–	–	W
15/08	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
08/08	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Elana Torun vs Flota Swinoujscie?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Elana Torun win (43%). Probabilities: Elana Torun 43%, draw 24%, Flota Swinoujscie 33%.

How many goals are expected in Elana Torun vs Flota Swinoujscie?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Elana Torun 1.76 · Flota Swinoujscie 1.53), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Elana Torun vs Flota Swinoujscie?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.