Football · Poland III Liga · 10/10, 17:00

Prediction: Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Gedania Gdansk

Team pages: Chemik Bydgoszcz · Gedania Gdansk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.62Total

Chemik Bydgoszcz1.95

Gedania Gdansk1.67

1X2

44% 24% 33%

Chemik Bydgoszcz Draw Gedania Gdansk

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Chemik Bydgoszcz 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

DLLDLDDDDW

Gedania Gdansk 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DDDLLLDWLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chemik Bydgoszcz 1456 · Gedania Gdansk 1459

	Chemik Bydgoszcz	Draw	Gedania Gdansk
Our model	44%	23%	33%
Market	43%	24%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.62 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chemik Bydgoszcz	Gedania Gdansk
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.1	1.8 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.5	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.6	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.70

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.05▼	Bet365 2.05
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.55 → 2.75▲	Pinn 3.05 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:31 +6’	2.20	3.70	2.55
10:48 +7’	2.05▼	3.70	2.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:13 +4’	1.93	3.58	3.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	11	8	3	0	18	5	27
2	Wisloka Debica	11	7	1	3	16	13	22
3	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
4	KSZO Ostrowiec	11	5	5	1	16	9	20
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	11	6	2	3	27	21	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	11	6	2	3	18	16	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	11	5	2	4	27	20	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	11	3	5	3	20	20	14
9	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	11	4	2	5	17	21	14
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	11	2	7	2	12	12	13
12	Wisla Krakow II	11	3	4	4	13	16	13
13	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
14	Korona Kielce II	11	3	2	6	23	27	11
15	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	11	3	2	6	10	14	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	2	2	7	13	22	8
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	11	2	1	8	11	21	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chemik Bydgoszcz	Gedania Gdansk
Victoria Wrzesnia	2-2 D	0-0 D
Baltyk Koszalin	2-2 D	1-3 L
KSS Kotwica Kornik	1-4 L	6-1 W
Flota Swinoujscie	1-1 D	1-1 D
KTS-K Luzino	1-3 L	0-4 L
Polonia Sroda Wlkp	1-4 L	3-4 L
Lech Poznan II	1-1 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Chemik Bydgoszcz (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chemik Bydgoszcz

DLLDLDDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
26/09	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-3	3-3	1	2	D
19/09	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
12/09	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	11	4	D
05/09	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
28/08	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	3	3	L
22/08	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
19/08	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
14/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-4	1-4	–	–	L
08/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D

Gedania Gdansk

DDDLLLDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
26/09	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	3	1	L
19/09	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-1	6-1	–	–	W
12/09	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	7	4	L
28/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-0	3-4	6	7	L
23/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
19/08	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	7	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Gedania Gdansk?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chemik Bydgoszcz win (44%). Probabilities: Chemik Bydgoszcz 44%, draw 24%, Gedania Gdansk 33%.

How many goals are expected in Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Gedania Gdansk?

The model expects 3.62 goals (Chemik Bydgoszcz 1.95 · Gedania Gdansk 1.67), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Gedania Gdansk?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.