Football · Poland III Liga · 14/08, 18:00

Prediction: Victoria Wrzesnia vs KTS-K Luzino

Team pages: Victoria Wrzesnia · KTS-K Luzino

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Victoria Wrzesnia1.07

KTS-K Luzino1.83

1X2

22% 24% 55%

Victoria Wrzesnia Draw KTS-K Luzino

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Victoria Wrzesnia 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WDWLLWLWLL

KTS-K Luzino 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLWLLLWD

Head-to-head

Victoria Wrzesnia 0–2 KTS-K Luzino (2 last)

Victoria Wrzesnia0-1KTS-K Luzino
KTS-K Luzino1-0Victoria Wrzesnia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Victoria Wrzesnia 1469 · KTS-K Luzino 1520

	Victoria Wrzesnia	Draw	KTS-K Luzino
Our model	21%	25%	54%
Market	22%	22%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KTS-K Luzino (rating 1469 vs 1520).
H2H favours KTS-K Luzino: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Victoria Wrzesnia	KTS-K Luzino
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.4	1.5 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.00

X4.00

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:13 +7’	4.00	4.00	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Victoria Wrzesnia 0–0–2 KTS-K Luzino

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Poland III Liga	Victoria Wrzesnia	0-1 HT 0-1	KTS-K Luzino
11/11/25 Poland III Liga	KTS-K Luzino	1-0 HT 0-0	Victoria Wrzesnia

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Wislanie Jaskowice	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
2	Wisla Krakow II	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
3	Czarni Polaniec	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
4	Chelmianka Chelm	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
5	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
5	Wisloka Debica	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
7	KSZO Ostrowiec	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
8	Moravia Morawica	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Naprzod Jedrzejow	2	1	0	1	5	6	3
10	Hetman Zamosc	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
11	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
13	JKS Jaroslaw	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
14	Star Starachowice	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
16	Korona Kielce II	2	0	0	2	5	7	0
17	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
18	Wieczysta Krakow II	2	0	0	2	2	6	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Victoria Wrzesnia	KTS-K Luzino
Lipno Steszew	1-3 L	5-0 W
Kluczevia Stargard	2-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: KTS-K Luzino (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Victoria Wrzesnia

WDWLLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
01/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	1-3	2-5	3	6	L
30/05	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
23/05	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	7	3	L
16/05	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	5	1	W
13/05	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
09/05	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	0	2	L
01/05	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	3	2	W
25/04	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
19/04	Tluchowia Tluchowo Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W

KTS-K Luzino

WWWLWLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
01/08	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-1	6-2	5	1	W
18/07	Arka Gdynia Europe Friendlies	0-2	0-2	1	5	L
10/07	Grom Nowy Staw Europe Friendlies	0-2	0-2	6	1	L
03/06	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	1	3	L
30/05	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
23/05	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
17/05	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	2-0	5-0	5	2	W
13/05	Cartusia Kartuzy Poland III Liga	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
09/05	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Victoria Wrzesnia vs KTS-K Luzino?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KTS-K Luzino win (55%). Probabilities: Victoria Wrzesnia 22%, draw 24%, KTS-K Luzino 55%.

How many goals are expected in Victoria Wrzesnia vs KTS-K Luzino?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Victoria Wrzesnia 1.07 · KTS-K Luzino 1.83), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Victoria Wrzesnia vs KTS-K Luzino?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.