Football · Poland III Liga · 22/08, 14:00

Prediction: Victoria Wrzesnia vs KSS Kotwica Kornik

Team pages: Victoria Wrzesnia · KSS Kotwica Kornik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.37Total

Victoria Wrzesnia2.31

KSS Kotwica Kornik1.06

1X2

64% 21% 15%

Victoria Wrzesnia Draw KSS Kotwica Kornik

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Victoria Wrzesnia 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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KSS Kotwica Kornik 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWWDWLLLDL

Head-to-head

Victoria Wrzesnia 1–0 KSS Kotwica Kornik (1 last)

KSS Kotwica Kornik0-2Victoria Wrzesnia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Victoria Wrzesnia 1437 · KSS Kotwica Kornik 1477

	Victoria Wrzesnia	Draw	KSS Kotwica Kornik
Our model	64%	20%	15%
Market	64%	21%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KSS Kotwica Kornik (rating 1437 vs 1477).
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Victoria Wrzesnia	KSS Kotwica Kornik
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.4	2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4	2.3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.33

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
20:23 +9’	1.40	4.33	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Victoria Wrzesnia 1–0–0 KSS Kotwica Kornik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/04/22 Poland IV Liga	KSS Kotwica Kornik	0-2 HT 0-0	Victoria Wrzesnia

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	4	4	0	0	8	1	12
2	Wislanie Jaskowice	4	3	1	0	8	3	10
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	4	2	2	0	6	4	8
4	Wisla Krakow II	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
5	Wisloka Debica	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
6	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Hetman Zamosc	4	1	3	0	7	4	6
8	Moravia Morawica	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
9	Czarni Polaniec	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
10	Naprzod Jedrzejow	4	2	0	2	9	11	6
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
12	JKS Jaroslaw	4	1	1	2	7	8	4
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	4	1	1	2	5	8	4
15	Star Starachowice	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
16	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
17	Korona Kielce II	4	0	1	3	9	12	1
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	4	0	1	3	2	6	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Victoria Wrzesnia	KSS Kotwica Kornik
Flota Swinoujscie	0-5 L	0-2 L
KTS-K Luzino	1-3 L	2-6 L
Unia Swarzedz	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Victoria Wrzesnia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-1	0-5	–	–	L
14/08	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
07/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
01/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	1-3	2-5	3	6	L
30/05	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
23/05	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	7	3	L
16/05	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	5	1	W
13/05	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
09/05	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	0	2	L
01/05	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	3	2	W

KSS Kotwica Kornik

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	3	9	L
15/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
08/08	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
01/08	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-2	2-6	5	1	L
25/07	Unia Swarzedz Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-2	0	1	L
04/06	LKS Goluchow Poland IV Liga	2-1	5-3	6	2	W
21/03	Obra Koscian Poland IV Liga	1-1	1-1	8	5	D
18/10	Huragan Pobiedziska Poland IV Liga	0-0	1-0	2	10	W
11/10	Piast Kobylnica Poland IV Liga	3-1	5-1	4	2	W
27/09	Mieszko Gniezno Poland IV Liga	1-0	3-0	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Victoria Wrzesnia vs KSS Kotwica Kornik?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Victoria Wrzesnia win (64%). Probabilities: Victoria Wrzesnia 64%, draw 21%, KSS Kotwica Kornik 15%.

How many goals are expected in Victoria Wrzesnia vs KSS Kotwica Kornik?

The model expects 3.37 goals (Victoria Wrzesnia 2.31 · KSS Kotwica Kornik 1.06), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Victoria Wrzesnia vs KSS Kotwica Kornik?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.