Football · Poland III Liga · 19/09, 14:00

Prediction: Blekitni Stargard vs Victoria Wrzesnia

Team pages: Blekitni Stargard · Victoria Wrzesnia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.79Total

Blekitni Stargard2.42

Victoria Wrzesnia1.37

1X2

60% 20% 20%

Blekitni Stargard Draw Victoria Wrzesnia

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Blekitni Stargard 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLWLWWLW

Victoria Wrzesnia 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLWLDD

Head-to-head

Blekitni Stargard 1–1 Victoria Wrzesnia (2 last)

Blekitni Stargard2-3Victoria Wrzesnia
Victoria Wrzesnia1-3Blekitni Stargard

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Blekitni Stargard 1538 · Victoria Wrzesnia 1448

	Blekitni Stargard	Draw	Victoria Wrzesnia
Our model	60%	20%	20%
Market	60%	20%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.79 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Blekitni Stargard (rating 1538 vs 1448).
High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Blekitni Stargard	Victoria Wrzesnia
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.6	1.2 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.9	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 7.1	2.6 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:54 +41’	1.50	4.50	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Blekitni Stargard 1–0–1 Victoria Wrzesnia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Poland III Liga	Blekitni Stargard	2-3 HT 2-0	Victoria Wrzesnia
06/09/25 Poland III Liga	Victoria Wrzesnia	1-3 HT 0-0	Blekitni Stargard

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	8	7	1	0	14	2	22
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	8	5	3	0	14	6	18
3	Czarni Polaniec	8	6	0	2	14	9	18
4	Wislanie Jaskowice	8	5	1	2	13	7	16
5	JKS Jaroslaw	8	4	1	3	19	13	13
6	Wisloka Debica	8	4	1	3	11	11	13
7	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	8	3	2	3	10	9	11
8	Wisla Krakow II	8	3	2	3	9	9	11
9	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	8	3	2	3	7	7	11
10	Naprzod Jedrzejow	8	3	2	3	15	17	11
11	Hetman Zamosc	8	2	3	3	13	14	9
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	8	1	5	2	8	9	8
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	8	2	2	4	11	16	8
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	8	2	1	5	9	13	7
15	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	8	2	1	5	8	13	7
16	Star Starachowice	8	1	3	4	7	14	6
17	Moravia Morawica	8	2	0	6	8	16	6
18	Korona Kielce II	8	1	2	5	20	25	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Blekitni Stargard	Victoria Wrzesnia
Baltyk Koszalin	2-0 W	0-2 L
KSS Kotwica Kornik	2-4 L	1-0 W
Flota Swinoujscie	5-1 W	0-5 L
KTS-K Luzino	2-1 W	1-3 L
Polonia Sroda Wlkp	1-4 L	0-1 L
Lech Poznan II	4-2 W	2-5 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Blekitni Stargard (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Blekitni Stargard

WWDLWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
05/09	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-2	2-4	8	5	L
29/08	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	3-0	5-1	–	–	W
23/08	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
19/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	5	7	L
15/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	4-2	4-2	10	5	W
08/08	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
01/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	7	1	D
30/05	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	12	4	W
22/05	Tluchowia Tluchowo Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	4	6	W

Victoria Wrzesnia

LWLLLLWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	11	4	D
05/09	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
29/08	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
22/08	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
19/08	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-1	0-5	–	–	L
14/08	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
07/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
01/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	1-3	2-5	3	6	L
30/05	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
23/05	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Blekitni Stargard vs Victoria Wrzesnia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Blekitni Stargard win (60%). Probabilities: Blekitni Stargard 60%, draw 20%, Victoria Wrzesnia 20%.

How many goals are expected in Blekitni Stargard vs Victoria Wrzesnia?

The model expects 3.79 goals (Blekitni Stargard 2.42 · Victoria Wrzesnia 1.37), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Blekitni Stargard vs Victoria Wrzesnia?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.