Football · Poland III Liga · 03/10, 12:00

Prediction: Gedania Gdansk vs Victoria Wrzesnia

Team pages: Gedania Gdansk · Victoria Wrzesnia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.69Total

Gedania Gdansk1.95

Victoria Wrzesnia1.74

1X2

42% 24% 34%

Gedania Gdansk Draw Victoria Wrzesnia

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Gedania Gdansk 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WDDDLLLDWL

Victoria Wrzesnia 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLDDDD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gedania Gdansk 1473 · Victoria Wrzesnia 1445

	Gedania Gdansk	Draw	Victoria Wrzesnia
Our model	43%	23%	34%
Market	42%	25%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gedania Gdansk	Victoria Wrzesnia
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 2.4	1.1 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5	1.5 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.60

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 1.3 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:03 +5’	2.15	3.60	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	10	8	2	0	16	3	26
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	10	5	4	1	15	8	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	10	6	1	3	17	15	19
4	Wisloka Debica	10	6	1	3	14	12	19
5	JKS Jaroslaw	10	5	2	3	26	17	17
6	Wislanie Jaskowice	10	5	2	3	15	10	17
7	Naprzod Jedrzejow	10	5	2	3	24	20	17
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
9	Hetman Zamosc	10	3	4	3	18	18	13
10	Wisla Krakow II	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	10	2	6	2	10	10	12
12	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
13	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
14	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	10	3	2	5	14	21	11
15	Korona Kielce II	10	2	2	6	21	26	8
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	10	2	2	6	9	14	8
17	Moravia Morawica	10	2	1	7	11	20	7
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	10	2	1	7	10	19	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gedania Gdansk	Victoria Wrzesnia
Baltyk Koszalin	1-3 L	0-2 L
KSS Kotwica Kornik	6-1 W	1-0 W
Flota Swinoujscie	1-1 D	0-5 L
KTS-K Luzino	0-4 L	1-3 L
Polonia Sroda Wlkp	3-4 L	0-1 L
Lech Poznan II	2-3 L	2-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Gedania Gdansk (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gedania Gdansk

WDDDLLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	3	1	L
19/09	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-1	6-1	–	–	W
12/09	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	7	4	L
28/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-0	3-4	6	7	L
23/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
19/08	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	2-0	2-2	2	7	D
15/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	7	2	D
31/07	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	2-1	5-3	–	–	W

Victoria Wrzesnia

LLLLWLDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
19/09	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
12/09	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	11	4	D
05/09	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
29/08	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
22/08	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
19/08	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-1	0-5	–	–	L
14/08	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
07/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
01/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	1-3	2-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gedania Gdansk vs Victoria Wrzesnia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gedania Gdansk win (42%). Probabilities: Gedania Gdansk 42%, draw 24%, Victoria Wrzesnia 34%.

How many goals are expected in Gedania Gdansk vs Victoria Wrzesnia?

The model expects 3.69 goals (Gedania Gdansk 1.95 · Victoria Wrzesnia 1.74), with a 60% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Gedania Gdansk vs Victoria Wrzesnia?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.