Football · Poland III Liga · 03/10, 12:00

Prediction: Unia Swarzedz vs KSS Kotwica Kornik

Team pages: Unia Swarzedz · KSS Kotwica Kornik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.53Total

Unia Swarzedz2.21

KSS Kotwica Kornik1.31

1X2

57% 22% 21%

Unia Swarzedz Draw KSS Kotwica Kornik

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Unia Swarzedz 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLDLLW

KSS Kotwica Kornik 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWWWLL

Head-to-head

Unia Swarzedz 1–3–0 KSS Kotwica Kornik (4 last)

KSS Kotwica Kornik1-2Unia Swarzedz
KSS Kotwica Kornik3-3Unia Swarzedz
Unia Swarzedz2-2KSS Kotwica Kornik
Unia Swarzedz1-1KSS Kotwica Kornik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Unia Swarzedz 1480 · KSS Kotwica Kornik 1448

	Unia Swarzedz	Draw	KSS Kotwica Kornik
Our model	57%	22%	21%
Market	57%	21%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Unia Swarzedz	KSS Kotwica Kornik
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.9	1.8 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6.1	1 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.20

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.93

2 (+1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:03 +5’	1.57	4.20	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Unia Swarzedz 1–3–0 KSS Kotwica Kornik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Europe Friendlies	KSS Kotwica Kornik	1-2 HT 1-0	Unia Swarzedz
16/05/25 Poland III Liga	KSS Kotwica Kornik	3-3 HT 2-1	Unia Swarzedz
08/02/25 Europe Friendlies	Unia Swarzedz	2-2 HT 1-0	KSS Kotwica Kornik
18/10/24 Poland III Liga	Unia Swarzedz	1-1 HT 0-0	KSS Kotwica Kornik

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	10	8	2	0	16	3	26
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	10	5	4	1	15	8	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	10	6	1	3	17	15	19
4	Wisloka Debica	10	6	1	3	14	12	19
5	JKS Jaroslaw	10	5	2	3	26	17	17
6	Wislanie Jaskowice	10	5	2	3	15	10	17
7	Naprzod Jedrzejow	10	5	2	3	24	20	17
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
9	Hetman Zamosc	10	3	4	3	18	18	13
10	Wisla Krakow II	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	10	2	6	2	10	10	12
12	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
13	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
14	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	10	3	2	5	14	21	11
15	Korona Kielce II	10	2	2	6	21	26	8
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	10	2	2	6	9	14	8
17	Moravia Morawica	10	2	1	7	11	20	7
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	10	2	1	7	10	19	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Unia Swarzedz	KSS Kotwica Kornik
Flota Swinoujscie	2-0 W	0-2 L
KTS-K Luzino	1-3 L	2-6 L
KKS 1925 Kalisz	0-1 L	2-2 D
Grom Nowy Staw	3-2 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Unia Swarzedz (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Unia Swarzedz

WLLWLLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
19/09	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-0	1-3	3	5	L
11/09	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-1	3-4	6	5	L
04/09	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	9	3	D
28/08	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	7	5	L
23/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
19/08	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-2	3-2	5	6	W
14/08	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	8	3	L
09/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
01/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	–	–	W

KSS Kotwica Kornik

LLDLLWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-2	1-3	1	3	L
19/09	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-2	1-6	–	–	L
12/09	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	3	1	W
05/09	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-2	4-2	4	5	W
28/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	2	3	W
22/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
19/08	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	3	9	L
15/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
08/08	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
01/08	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-2	2-6	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Unia Swarzedz vs KSS Kotwica Kornik?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Unia Swarzedz win (57%). Probabilities: Unia Swarzedz 57%, draw 22%, KSS Kotwica Kornik 21%.

How many goals are expected in Unia Swarzedz vs KSS Kotwica Kornik?

The model expects 3.53 goals (Unia Swarzedz 2.21 · KSS Kotwica Kornik 1.31), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Unia Swarzedz vs KSS Kotwica Kornik?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.