Football · Poland III Liga · 10/10, 12:00

Prediction: Victoria Wrzesnia vs Grom Nowy Staw

Team pages: Victoria Wrzesnia · Grom Nowy Staw

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.52Total

Victoria Wrzesnia1.83

Grom Nowy Staw1.69

1X2

40% 25% 35%

Victoria Wrzesnia Draw Grom Nowy Staw

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Victoria Wrzesnia 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDDDDD

Grom Nowy Staw 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWDLWWL

Head-to-head

Victoria Wrzesnia 0–1–0 Grom Nowy Staw (1 last)

Grom Nowy Staw2-2Victoria Wrzesnia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Victoria Wrzesnia 1462 · Grom Nowy Staw 1497

	Victoria Wrzesnia	Draw	Grom Nowy Staw
Our model	41%	24%	35%
Market	40%	26%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.52 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Victoria Wrzesnia	Grom Nowy Staw
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.8	2.6 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	1.3 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.8	1.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.40

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
15:24 +16’	2.25	3.40	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Victoria Wrzesnia 0–1–0 Grom Nowy Staw

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/06/25 Poland IV Liga	Grom Nowy Staw	2-2 HT 1-1	Victoria Wrzesnia

Standings · Poland III Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	11	8	3	0	18	5	27
2	Wisloka Debica	11	7	1	3	16	13	22
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	11	5	5	1	16	9	20
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	11	6	2	3	27	21	20
5	Czarni Polaniec	11	6	2	3	18	16	20
6	JKS Jaroslaw	11	5	2	4	27	20	17
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	11	5	2	4	15	11	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	11	3	5	3	20	20	14
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	11	4	2	5	14	15	14
10	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	11	4	2	5	17	21	14
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	11	2	7	2	12	12	13
12	Wisla Krakow II	11	3	4	4	13	16	13
13	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
14	Korona Kielce II	11	3	2	6	23	27	11
15	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	11	3	2	6	10	14	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	2	2	7	13	22	8
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	11	2	1	8	11	21	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Victoria Wrzesnia	Grom Nowy Staw
Baltyk Koszalin	0-2 L	1-3 L
KSS Kotwica Kornik	1-0 W	3-1 W
Flota Swinoujscie	0-5 L	5-0 W
KTS-K Luzino	1-3 L	1-5 L
Polonia Sroda Wlkp	0-1 L	4-4 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Grom Nowy Staw (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Victoria Wrzesnia

LLLWLDDDDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
26/09	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
19/09	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
12/09	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	11	4	D
05/09	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
29/08	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
22/08	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
19/08	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-1	0-5	–	–	L
14/08	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
07/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Grom Nowy Staw

WLLLWDLWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-2	1-3	3	10	L
26/09	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-1	3-1	5	3	W
19/09	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	5-0	5-0	2	5	W
11/09	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-2	1-5	4	0	L
05/09	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	2-2	4-4	5	6	D
29/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-2	4-2	5	4	W
23/08	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	1-2	3-4	–	–	L
19/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	2-1	2-4	–	–	L
15/08	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
08/08	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Victoria Wrzesnia vs Grom Nowy Staw?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Victoria Wrzesnia win (40%). Probabilities: Victoria Wrzesnia 40%, draw 25%, Grom Nowy Staw 35%.

How many goals are expected in Victoria Wrzesnia vs Grom Nowy Staw?

The model expects 3.52 goals (Victoria Wrzesnia 1.83 · Grom Nowy Staw 1.69), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Victoria Wrzesnia vs Grom Nowy Staw?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.