Football · Poland III Liga · 03/10, 12:30

Prediction: Grom Nowy Staw vs Baltyk Koszalin

Team pages: Grom Nowy Staw · Baltyk Koszalin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.57Total

Grom Nowy Staw2.01

Baltyk Koszalin1.56

1X2

47% 24% 29%

Grom Nowy Staw Draw Baltyk Koszalin

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Grom Nowy Staw 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Baltyk Koszalin 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWDWDLLW

Head-to-head

Grom Nowy Staw 0–1–0 Baltyk Koszalin (1 last)

Baltyk Koszalin2-2Grom Nowy Staw

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Grom Nowy Staw 1505 · Baltyk Koszalin 1479

	Grom Nowy Staw	Draw	Baltyk Koszalin
Our model	47%	23%	29%
Market	47%	24%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Grom Nowy Staw	Baltyk Koszalin
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 2.5	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1.2	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.4	2 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.75

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:03 +7’	1.91	3.75	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Grom Nowy Staw 0–1–0 Baltyk Koszalin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/08/19 Poland III Liga	Baltyk Koszalin	2-2 HT 0-1	Grom Nowy Staw

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	10	8	2	0	16	3	26
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	10	5	4	1	15	8	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	10	6	1	3	17	15	19
4	Wisloka Debica	10	6	1	3	14	12	19
5	JKS Jaroslaw	10	5	2	3	26	17	17
6	Wislanie Jaskowice	10	5	2	3	15	10	17
7	Naprzod Jedrzejow	10	5	2	3	24	20	17
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
9	Hetman Zamosc	10	3	4	3	18	18	13
10	Wisla Krakow II	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	10	2	6	2	10	10	12
12	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
13	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
14	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	10	3	2	5	14	21	11
15	Korona Kielce II	10	2	2	6	21	26	8
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	10	2	2	6	9	14	8
17	Moravia Morawica	10	2	1	7	11	20	7
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	10	2	1	7	10	19	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Grom Nowy Staw	Baltyk Koszalin
KSS Kotwica Kornik	3-1 W	1-0 W
Flota Swinoujscie	5-0 W	1-2 L
KTS-K Luzino	1-5 L	1-1 D
Polonia Sroda Wlkp	4-4 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Grom Nowy Staw (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Grom Nowy Staw

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-1	3-1	5	3	W
19/09	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	5-0	5-0	2	5	W
11/09	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-2	1-5	4	0	L
05/09	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	2-2	4-4	5	6	D
29/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-2	4-2	5	4	W
23/08	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	1-2	3-4	–	–	L
19/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	2-1	2-4	6	6	L
15/08	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	4	7	L
08/08	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
01/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-1	2-3	–	–	L

Baltyk Koszalin

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	8	1	W
19/09	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
12/09	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
05/09	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
29/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
23/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/08	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	5	9	W
15/08	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
09/08	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
01/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Grom Nowy Staw vs Baltyk Koszalin?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Grom Nowy Staw win (47%). Probabilities: Grom Nowy Staw 47%, draw 24%, Baltyk Koszalin 29%.

How many goals are expected in Grom Nowy Staw vs Baltyk Koszalin?

The model expects 3.57 goals (Grom Nowy Staw 2.01 · Baltyk Koszalin 1.56), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Grom Nowy Staw vs Baltyk Koszalin?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.