Football · Poland III Liga · 10/10, 15:30

Prediction: Baltyk Koszalin vs Unia Swarzedz

Team pages: Baltyk Koszalin · Unia Swarzedz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Baltyk Koszalin1.28

Unia Swarzedz1.75

1X2

28% 24% 48%

Baltyk Koszalin Draw Unia Swarzedz

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Baltyk Koszalin 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWDWDLLWW

Unia Swarzedz 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLDLLWW

Head-to-head

Baltyk Koszalin 1–1–0 Unia Swarzedz (2 last)

Baltyk Koszalin2-2Unia Swarzedz
Unia Swarzedz0-3Baltyk Koszalin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Baltyk Koszalin 1514 · Unia Swarzedz 1478

	Baltyk Koszalin	Draw	Unia Swarzedz
Our model	27%	26%	47%
Market	28%	24%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Baltyk Koszalin	Unia Swarzedz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 5.6	2.8 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.4	3.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.80

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.88

2 (-0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 10:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 3.20▲	Pinn 3.39 ★
X	3.70 → 3.80▲	Bet365 3.80
2	2.10 → 1.85▼	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +38’	2.70	3.70	2.10
04:03 +6’	2.80▲	3.70	2.05▼
10:34 +7’	3.20▲	3.80▲	1.85▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:42 +27’	3.39	3.53	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Baltyk Koszalin 1–1–0 Unia Swarzedz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/21 Poland III Liga	Baltyk Koszalin	2-2 HT 0-0	Unia Swarzedz
15/08/20 Poland III Liga	Unia Swarzedz	0-3 HT 0-3	Baltyk Koszalin

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	11	8	3	0	18	5	27
2	Wisloka Debica	11	7	1	3	16	13	22
3	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
4	KSZO Ostrowiec	11	5	5	1	16	9	20
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	11	6	2	3	27	21	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	11	6	2	3	18	16	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	11	5	2	4	27	20	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	11	3	5	3	20	20	14
9	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	11	4	2	5	17	21	14
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	11	2	7	2	12	12	13
12	Wisla Krakow II	11	3	4	4	13	16	13
13	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
14	Korona Kielce II	11	3	2	6	23	27	11
15	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	11	3	2	6	10	14	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	2	2	7	13	22	8
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	11	2	1	8	11	21	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Baltyk Koszalin	Unia Swarzedz
KKS 1925 Kalisz	1-1 D	0-1 L
KSS Kotwica Kornik	1-0 W	7-0 W
Flota Swinoujscie	1-2 L	2-0 W
KTS-K Luzino	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Baltyk Koszalin

DLWDWDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-0	3-1	2	10	W
26/09	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	8	1	W
19/09	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
12/09	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
05/09	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
29/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
23/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/08	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
09/08	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D

Unia Swarzedz

LLWLLDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-0	7-0	6	3	W
26/09	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
19/09	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-0	1-3	3	5	L
11/09	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-1	3-4	6	5	L
04/09	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	9	3	D
28/08	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	7	5	L
23/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
19/08	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-2	3-2	–	–	W
14/08	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
09/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Baltyk Koszalin vs Unia Swarzedz?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Unia Swarzedz win (48%). Probabilities: Baltyk Koszalin 28%, draw 24%, Unia Swarzedz 48%.

How many goals are expected in Baltyk Koszalin vs Unia Swarzedz?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Baltyk Koszalin 1.28 · Unia Swarzedz 1.75), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Baltyk Koszalin vs Unia Swarzedz?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.