Football · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion · 07/11, 15:00

Prediction: Lucerne II vs FC Grand-Saconnex

Team pages: Lucerne II · FC Grand-Saconnex

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.05Total

Lucerne II1.82

FC Grand-Saconnex2.23

1X2

31% 22% 47%

Lucerne II Draw FC Grand-Saconnex

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Lucerne II 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLLLDW

FC Grand-Saconnex 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWWWWLLLLW

Head-to-head

Lucerne II 0–3–1 FC Grand-Saconnex (4 last)

FC Grand-Saconnex3-2Lucerne II
Lucerne II4-4FC Grand-Saconnex
FC Grand-Saconnex3-3Lucerne II
Lucerne II1-1FC Grand-Saconnex

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lucerne II 1448 · FC Grand-Saconnex 1498

	Lucerne II	Draw	FC Grand-Saconnex
Our model	31%	22%	47%
Market	31%	21%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 4.05 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Grand-Saconnex (rating 1448 vs 1498).
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lucerne II	FC Grand-Saconnex
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.4	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.4	1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	29/43/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.4	1.9 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.6	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.88

X4.20

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 2.88▼	Bet365 2.88
X	4.50 → 4.20▼	Pinn 4.51 ★
2	1.70 → 1.91▲	Pinn 1.97

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:17 +10’	3.40	4.50	1.70
15:49 +11’	2.88▼	4.20▼	1.91▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:55 +31’	2.81	4.51	1.97

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lucerne II 0–3–1 FC Grand-Saconnex

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	FC Grand-Saconnex	3-2	Lucerne II
08/11/25 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Lucerne II	4-4	FC Grand-Saconnex
17/05/25 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	FC Grand-Saconnex	3-3	Lucerne II
09/11/24 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Lucerne II	1-1	FC Grand-Saconnex

Standings · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Schaffhausen	13	10	1	2	33	15	31
2	FC Bulle	14	9	3	2	31	20	30
3	Biel Bienne	14	8	4	2	30	18	28
4	SC Cham	14	8	3	3	25	19	27
5	FC Paradiso	14	7	4	3	27	15	25
6	FC Grand-Saconnex	14	8	0	6	27	20	24
7	FC Zurich II	14	6	3	5	29	25	21
8	Breitenrain	14	6	3	5	21	20	21
9	SC Bruhl	14	6	2	6	18	18	20
10	Basel II	14	6	1	7	24	26	19
11	YF Juventus	14	6	1	7	19	22	19
12	FC Amical Saint-Prex	14	6	1	7	18	26	19
13	FC Kreuzlingen	14	4	3	7	22	26	15
14	Young Boys II	14	4	3	7	29	36	15
15	Lugano II	14	4	1	9	21	33	13
16	Lucerne II	14	3	2	9	21	33	11
17	AC Bellinzona	14	2	3	9	10	26	9
18	Bavois	13	2	2	9	12	19	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lucerne II	FC Grand-Saconnex
FC Kreuzlingen	3-2 W	1-0 W
FC Paradiso	1-2 L	2-5 L
Breitenrain	0-1 L	1-0 W
Young Boys II	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Grand-Saconnex (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lucerne II

DLLWLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FC Kreuzlingen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	3-2	–	–	W
28/10	SC Cham Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-2	–	–	D
24/10	FC Paradiso Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-2	–	–	L
10/10	FC Schaffhausen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-4	0-8	0	5	L
03/10	Basel II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-1	2-3	5	5	L
26/09	FC Amical Saint-Prex Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-3	–	–	L
20/09	Bavois Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	1-0	8	7	W
12/09	Biel Bienne Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-1	–	–	L
05/09	Breitenrain Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
30/08	Young Boys II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-2	2-2	10	7	D

FC Grand-Saconnex

LWWWWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Young Boys II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-1	–	–	W
25/10	FC Bulle Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	2-3	2-3	5	8	L
17/10	Lugano II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-0	1-2	1	7	L
10/10	SC Bruhl Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
03/10	YF Juventus Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
26/09	FC Zurich II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-1	2-1	2	2	W
19/09	AC Bellinzona Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	3-0	–	–	W
12/09	Breitenrain Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
05/09	FC Kreuzlingen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	FC Paradiso Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	2-2	2-5	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lucerne II vs FC Grand-Saconnex?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Grand-Saconnex win (47%). Probabilities: Lucerne II 31%, draw 22%, FC Grand-Saconnex 47%.

How many goals are expected in Lucerne II vs FC Grand-Saconnex?

The model expects 4.05 goals (Lucerne II 1.82 · FC Grand-Saconnex 2.23), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lucerne II vs FC Grand-Saconnex?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.