Football · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion · 07/11, 15:00

Prediction: Bavois vs FC Paradiso

Team pages: Bavois · FC Paradiso

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Bavois1.32

FC Paradiso1.6

1X2

31% 25% 44%

Bavois Draw FC Paradiso

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Bavois 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

DLWLLLLLLL

FC Paradiso 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWDDWD

Head-to-head

Bavois 2–4 FC Paradiso (6 last)

FC Paradiso2-1Bavois
Bavois3-2FC Paradiso
Bavois1-0FC Paradiso
FC Paradiso1-0Bavois
FC Paradiso2-0Bavois
Bavois1-2FC Paradiso

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bavois 1414 · FC Paradiso 1570

	Bavois	Draw	FC Paradiso
Our model	30%	27%	43%
Market	32%	24%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Paradiso (rating 1414 vs 1570).
H2H favours FC Paradiso: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bavois	FC Paradiso
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.6	2.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	1.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	43/57/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.70

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 2.80▼	Pinn 3.05 ★
X	3.80 → 3.70▼	Bet365 3.70
2	1.85 → 2.00▲	Pinn 2.09

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.7% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:21 +6’	3.20	3.80	1.85
00:56 +5’	2.80▼	3.70▼	2.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:37 +7’	3.05	3.58	2.09

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bavois 2–0–4 FC Paradiso

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	FC Paradiso	2-1 HT 0-1	Bavois
20/09/25 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Bavois	3-2	FC Paradiso
15/03/25 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Bavois	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Paradiso
07/09/24 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	FC Paradiso	1-0 HT 0-0	Bavois
18/05/24 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	FC Paradiso	2-0 HT 1-0	Bavois
11/11/23 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Bavois	1-2	FC Paradiso

Standings · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Schaffhausen	13	10	1	2	33	15	31
2	FC Bulle	14	9	3	2	31	20	30
3	Biel Bienne	14	8	4	2	30	18	28
4	SC Cham	14	8	3	3	25	19	27
5	FC Paradiso	14	7	4	3	27	15	25
6	FC Grand-Saconnex	14	8	0	6	27	20	24
7	FC Zurich II	14	6	3	5	29	25	21
8	Breitenrain	14	6	3	5	21	20	21
9	SC Bruhl	14	6	2	6	18	18	20
10	Basel II	14	6	1	7	24	26	19
11	YF Juventus	14	6	1	7	19	22	19
12	FC Amical Saint-Prex	14	6	1	7	18	26	19
13	FC Kreuzlingen	14	4	3	7	22	26	15
14	Young Boys II	14	4	3	7	29	36	15
15	Lugano II	14	4	1	9	21	33	13
16	Lucerne II	14	3	2	9	21	33	11
17	AC Bellinzona	14	2	3	9	10	26	9
18	Bavois	13	2	2	9	12	19	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bavois	FC Paradiso
Biel Bienne	0-2 L	1-1 D
Lucerne II	0-1 L	2-1 W
Young Boys II	1-2 L	2-2 D
FC Bulle	3-0 W	2-2 D
Lugano II	2-3 L	1-0 W
SC Bruhl	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Paradiso (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bavois

DLWLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	SC Cham Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-2	–	–	L
17/10	Basel II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-0	1-3	0	4	L
10/10	FC Amical Saint-Prex Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
03/10	Breitenrain Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
26/09	Biel Bienne Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-2	–	–	L
20/09	Lucerne II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
12/09	Young Boys II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-2	–	–	L
05/09	FC Bulle Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	3-0	–	–	W
29/08	Lugano II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-3	2-3	9	8	L
22/08	SC Bruhl Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-0	–	–	D

FC Paradiso

WWWLWWDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Biel Bienne Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
24/10	Lucerne II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-1	–	–	W
17/10	Young Boys II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-1	2-2	9	3	D
10/10	FC Bulle Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-2	–	–	D
03/10	Lugano II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
26/09	SC Bruhl Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-0	–	–	W
19/09	YF Juventus Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
13/09	FC Zurich II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	2-0	3-1	2	5	W
05/09	AC Bellinzona Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	3-0	4-0	4	3	W
29/08	FC Grand-Saconnex Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	2-2	5-2	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bavois vs FC Paradiso?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Paradiso win (44%). Probabilities: Bavois 31%, draw 25%, FC Paradiso 44%.

How many goals are expected in Bavois vs FC Paradiso?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Bavois 1.32 · FC Paradiso 1.6), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Bavois vs FC Paradiso?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.