Football · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion · 07/11, 17:30

Prediction: Lugano II vs YF Juventus

Team pages: Lugano II · YF Juventus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Lugano II1.28

YF Juventus1.56

1X2

31% 25% 44%

Lugano II Draw YF Juventus

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Lugano II 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLLWDL

YF Juventus 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWWLWL

Head-to-head

Lugano II 0–2 YF Juventus (2 last)

Lugano II0-1YF Juventus
YF Juventus2-1Lugano II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lugano II 1447 · YF Juventus 1549

	Lugano II	Draw	YF Juventus
Our model	30%	27%	43%
Market	32%	24%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours YF Juventus (rating 1447 vs 1549).
H2H favours YF Juventus: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lugano II	YF Juventus
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.8	1.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	57/14/29%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.6	1.4 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.6 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.70

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 3.44 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.74
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.7% Pinnacle margin 8.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:29 +5’	2.80	3.70	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:27 +9’	3.36	3.71	1.93
15:05 +66’	3.44▲	3.74▲	1.89▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lugano II 0–0–2 YF Juventus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Europe Friendlies	Lugano II	0-1 HT 0-1	YF Juventus
24/01/26 Europe Friendlies	YF Juventus	2-1 HT 2-1	Lugano II

Standings · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Schaffhausen	13	10	1	2	33	15	31
2	FC Bulle	14	9	3	2	31	20	30
3	Biel Bienne	14	8	4	2	30	18	28
4	SC Cham	14	8	3	3	25	19	27
5	FC Paradiso	14	7	4	3	27	15	25
6	FC Grand-Saconnex	14	8	0	6	27	20	24
7	FC Zurich II	14	6	3	5	29	25	21
8	Breitenrain	14	6	3	5	21	20	21
9	SC Bruhl	14	6	2	6	18	18	20
10	Basel II	14	6	1	7	24	26	19
11	YF Juventus	14	6	1	7	19	22	19
12	FC Amical Saint-Prex	14	6	1	7	18	26	19
13	FC Kreuzlingen	14	4	3	7	22	26	15
14	Young Boys II	14	4	3	7	29	36	15
15	Lugano II	14	4	1	9	21	33	13
16	Lucerne II	14	3	2	9	21	33	11
17	AC Bellinzona	14	2	3	9	10	26	9
18	Bavois	13	2	2	9	12	19	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lugano II	YF Juventus
FC Zurich II	1-6 L	1-2 L
AC Bellinzona	1-1 D	2-0 W
FC Grand-Saconnex	2-1 W	1-0 W
FC Kreuzlingen	2-3 L	1-1 D
FC Paradiso	0-1 L	1-0 W
SC Cham	0-1 L	2-0 W
FC Schaffhausen	1-2 L	3-0 W
Basel II	3-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: YF Juventus (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lugano II

WLWLLLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FC Zurich II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-6	–	–	L
25/10	AC Bellinzona Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
17/10	FC Grand-Saconnex Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-1	2-1	3	7	W
11/10	FC Kreuzlingen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-0	2-3	3	4	L
03/10	FC Paradiso Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
26/09	SC Cham Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
19/09	FC Schaffhausen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-2	–	–	L
13/09	Basel II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	2-0	3-0	2	9	W
05/09	FC Amical Saint-Prex Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-1	–	–	L
29/08	Bavois Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	3-1	3-2	2	8	W

YF Juventus

LWWWDWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	SC Bruhl Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
24/10	Breitenrain Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	3-1	–	–	W
17/10	FC Zurich II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-1	1-2	7	8	L
10/10	AC Bellinzona Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-0	–	–	W
03/10	FC Grand-Saconnex Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
26/09	FC Kreuzlingen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	FC Paradiso Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
12/09	SC Cham Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-0	–	–	W
05/09	FC Schaffhausen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
29/08	Basel II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lugano II vs YF Juventus?

According to our model, the most likely result is an YF Juventus win (44%). Probabilities: Lugano II 31%, draw 25%, YF Juventus 44%.

How many goals are expected in Lugano II vs YF Juventus?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Lugano II 1.28 · YF Juventus 1.56), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Lugano II vs YF Juventus?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.