Football · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion · 14/11, 15:00

Prediction: FC Paradiso vs FC Amical Saint-Prex

Team pages: FC Paradiso · FC Amical Saint-Prex

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

FC Paradiso1.96

FC Amical Saint-Prex1.17

1X2

55% 23% 22%

FC Paradiso Draw FC Amical Saint-Prex

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Paradiso 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDDWDL

FC Amical Saint-Prex 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLDWLWLWLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Paradiso 1533 · FC Amical Saint-Prex 1478

	FC Paradiso	Draw	FC Amical Saint-Prex
Our model	55%	24%	22%
Market	55%	22%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Paradiso (rating 1533 vs 1478).
High corners: 13.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Paradiso	FC Amical Saint-Prex
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	43/43/14%	0/33/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.9	4.3 / 8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.00

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 08:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.61▼	Pinn 1.64
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.10
2	3.90 → 4.00▲	Pinn 4.59 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:39 +29’	1.65	4.00	3.90
01:54 +10’	1.70▲	3.90▼	3.75▼
03:01 +5’	1.65▼	4.00▲	3.90▲
07:10 +54’	1.61▼	4.00	4.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:02 +6’	1.71	3.96	4.01
03:03 +3’	1.59▼	4.15▲	4.64▲
06:03 +5’	1.61▲	4.10▼	4.50▼
10:04 +2’	1.63▲	4.02▼	4.49▼
13:15 +19’	1.64▲	4.10▲	4.59▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Bulle	15	10	3	2	34	20	33
2	FC Schaffhausen	14	10	2	2	35	17	32
3	Biel Bienne	15	9	4	2	33	19	31
4	SC Cham	15	9	3	3	30	19	30
5	FC Paradiso	15	7	4	4	28	19	25
6	FC Grand-Saconnex	15	8	0	7	28	25	24
7	SC Bruhl	15	7	2	6	20	19	23
8	YF Juventus	15	7	1	7	25	23	22
9	FC Zurich II	15	6	3	6	29	28	21
10	Breitenrain	15	6	3	6	22	22	21
11	Basel II	15	6	2	7	26	28	20
12	FC Amical Saint-Prex	15	6	1	8	18	31	19
13	Young Boys II	15	5	3	7	32	38	18
14	FC Kreuzlingen	15	4	3	8	23	29	15
15	Lucerne II	15	4	2	9	26	34	14
16	Lugano II	15	4	1	10	22	39	13
17	Bavois	14	3	2	9	16	20	11
18	AC Bellinzona	15	2	3	10	12	29	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Paradiso	FC Amical Saint-Prex
Bavois	1-4 L	2-0 W
Biel Bienne	1-1 D	1-2 L
Lucerne II	2-1 W	3-2 W
Young Boys II	2-2 D	2-2 D
FC Bulle	2-2 D	1-3 L
Lugano II	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Paradiso (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Paradiso

WWLWWDDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Bavois Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-2	1-4	10	4	L
31/10	Biel Bienne Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
24/10	Lucerne II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-1	–	–	W
17/10	Young Boys II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-1	2-2	9	3	D
10/10	FC Bulle Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-2	–	–	D
03/10	Lugano II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
26/09	SC Bruhl Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-0	–	–	W
19/09	YF Juventus Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
13/09	FC Zurich II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	2-0	3-1	2	5	W
05/09	AC Bellinzona Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	3-0	4-0	4	3	W

FC Amical Saint-Prex

WLDWLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	SC Cham Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-5	–	–	L
31/10	FC Schaffhausen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-1	–	–	L
24/10	Basel II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-0	–	–	W
17/10	Breitenrain Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-1	0-3	10	5	L
10/10	Bavois Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
03/10	Biel Bienne Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-2	–	–	L
26/09	Lucerne II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	3-2	–	–	W
19/09	Young Boys II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-2	–	–	D
10/09	FC Bulle Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-1	1-3	11	4	L
05/09	Lugano II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Paradiso vs FC Amical Saint-Prex?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Paradiso win (55%). Probabilities: FC Paradiso 55%, draw 23%, FC Amical Saint-Prex 22%.

How many goals are expected in FC Paradiso vs FC Amical Saint-Prex?

The model expects 3.13 goals (FC Paradiso 1.96 · FC Amical Saint-Prex 1.17), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Paradiso vs FC Amical Saint-Prex?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.