Football · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Bavois vs FC Amical Saint-Prex

Team pages: Bavois · FC Amical Saint-Prex

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Bavois1.81

FC Amical Saint-Prex1.17

1X2

52% 23% 24%

Bavois Draw FC Amical Saint-Prex

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Bavois 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WDLDLWLLLL

FC Amical Saint-Prex 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWLDWL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bavois 1438 · FC Amical Saint-Prex 1480

	Bavois	Draw	FC Amical Saint-Prex
Our model	51%	25%	23%
Market	53%	22%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Amical Saint-Prex (rating 1438 vs 1480).
High corners: 17 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bavois	FC Amical Saint-Prex
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	1.4 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/67/33%	0/0/100%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6	6 / 11
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.3	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.70

X4.20

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.70▲	Pinn 1.72
X	4.50 → 4.20▼	Bet365 4.20
2	4.50 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.90 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.4% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:02 +6’	1.50	4.50	4.50
22:47 +23’	1.70▲	4.20▼	3.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +66’	1.72	3.90	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Biel Bienne	10	8	1	1	23	10	25
2	FC Schaffhausen	10	7	1	2	21	13	22
3	FC Bulle	10	6	2	2	22	14	20
4	FC Paradiso	10	6	1	3	20	9	19
5	SC Cham	10	6	1	3	16	13	19
6	FC Grand-Saconnex	10	6	0	4	19	14	18
7	YF Juventus	10	5	1	4	14	14	16
8	Basel II	10	5	0	5	19	19	15
9	FC Zurich II	10	4	2	4	18	18	14
10	Breitenrain	10	4	2	4	13	15	14
11	FC Amical Saint-Prex	10	4	1	5	14	22	13
12	FC Kreuzlingen	10	3	3	4	13	13	12
13	SC Bruhl	10	3	2	5	12	15	11
14	Young Boys II	10	3	2	5	20	27	11
15	Lugano II	10	3	0	7	15	22	9
16	Bavois	10	2	2	6	10	12	8
17	Lucerne II	10	2	1	7	15	19	7
18	AC Bellinzona	10	1	2	7	7	22	5

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bavois	FC Amical Saint-Prex
Biel Bienne	0-2 L	1-2 L
Lucerne II	0-1 L	3-2 W
Young Boys II	1-2 L	2-2 D
FC Bulle	3-0 W	1-3 L
Lugano II	2-3 L	1-0 W
SC Bruhl	0-0 D	1-4 L
YF Juventus	0-1 L	3-1 W
FC Zurich II	2-2 D	1-2 L
AC Bellinzona	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 5 L	4 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Amical Saint-Prex (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bavois

WDLDLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Breitenrain Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
26/09	Biel Bienne Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-2	–	–	L
20/09	Lucerne II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
12/09	Young Boys II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-2	–	–	L
05/09	FC Bulle Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	3-0	–	–	W
29/08	Lugano II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-3	2-3	9	8	L
22/08	SC Bruhl Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-0	–	–	D
19/08	YF Juventus Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	FC Zurich II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-2	–	–	D
01/08	AC Bellinzona Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-0	–	–	W

FC Amical Saint-Prex

LWLWLWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Biel Bienne Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-2	–	–	L
26/09	Lucerne II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	3-2	–	–	W
19/09	Young Boys II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-2	–	–	D
10/09	FC Bulle Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-1	1-3	11	4	L
05/09	Lugano II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	SC Bruhl Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-4	–	–	L
22/08	YF Juventus Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	3-1	–	–	W
19/08	FC Zurich II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-2	–	–	L
09/08	AC Bellinzona Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-0	–	–	W
01/08	FC Grand-Saconnex Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-6	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bavois vs FC Amical Saint-Prex?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bavois win (52%). Probabilities: Bavois 52%, draw 23%, FC Amical Saint-Prex 24%.

How many goals are expected in Bavois vs FC Amical Saint-Prex?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Bavois 1.81 · FC Amical Saint-Prex 1.17), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Bavois vs FC Amical Saint-Prex?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.