Football · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: FC Grand-Saconnex vs Lugano II

Team pages: FC Grand-Saconnex · Lugano II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.54Total

FC Grand-Saconnex2.33

Lugano II1.21

1X2

62% 21% 18%

FC Grand-Saconnex Draw Lugano II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Grand-Saconnex 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWWWLL

Lugano II 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWLLLL

Head-to-head

FC Grand-Saconnex 1–1–2 Lugano II (4 last)

Lugano II0-3FC Grand-Saconnex
FC Grand-Saconnex2-3Lugano II
Lugano II3-0FC Grand-Saconnex
FC Grand-Saconnex1-1Lugano II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Grand-Saconnex 1499 · Lugano II 1447

	FC Grand-Saconnex	Draw	Lugano II
Our model	62%	21%	18%
Market	62%	21%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.54 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Grand-Saconnex (rating 1499 vs 1447).
H2H favours Lugano II: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Grand-Saconnex	Lugano II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.6 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.6	1.8 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.4	6.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.33

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.44▼	Bet365 1.44
X	4.20 → 4.33▲	Pinn 4.82 ★
2	4.50 → 5.00▲	Pinn 5.24

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +8’	1.50	4.20	4.50
19:46 +8’	1.44▼	4.33▲	5.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:20 +1’	1.44	4.82	5.24

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Grand-Saconnex 1–1–2 Lugano II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Lugano II	0-3 HT 0-3	FC Grand-Saconnex
01/11/25 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	FC Grand-Saconnex	2-3 HT 0-3	Lugano II
05/04/25 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Lugano II	3-0 HT 2-0	FC Grand-Saconnex
28/09/24 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	FC Grand-Saconnex	1-1 HT 1-0	Lugano II

Standings · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Biel Bienne	11	8	2	1	25	12	26
2	FC Schaffhausen	11	8	1	2	29	13	25
3	SC Cham	11	7	1	3	19	14	22
4	FC Bulle	11	6	3	2	24	16	21
5	FC Paradiso	11	6	2	3	22	11	20
6	YF Juventus	11	6	1	4	16	14	19
7	FC Grand-Saconnex	11	6	0	5	19	15	18
8	Basel II	11	5	1	5	21	21	16
9	FC Amical Saint-Prex	11	5	1	5	16	22	16
10	FC Kreuzlingen	11	4	3	4	16	15	15
11	FC Zurich II	11	4	3	4	20	20	15
12	Breitenrain	11	4	3	4	15	17	15
13	SC Bruhl	11	4	2	5	13	15	14
14	Young Boys II	11	3	2	6	21	30	11
15	Lugano II	11	3	0	8	17	25	9
16	Bavois	11	2	2	7	10	14	8
17	Lucerne II	11	2	1	8	15	27	7
18	AC Bellinzona	11	1	2	8	7	24	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Grand-Saconnex	Lugano II
FC Kreuzlingen	1-0 W	2-3 L
FC Paradiso	2-5 L	0-1 L
SC Cham	1-2 L	0-1 L
FC Schaffhausen	1-4 L	1-2 L
Basel II	2-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Lugano II (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Grand-Saconnex

WLLLWWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	SC Bruhl Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
03/10	YF Juventus Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
26/09	FC Zurich II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-1	2-1	2	2	W
19/09	AC Bellinzona Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	3-0	–	–	W
12/09	Breitenrain Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
05/09	FC Kreuzlingen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	FC Paradiso Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	2-2	2-5	6	5	L
22/08	SC Cham Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-2	–	–	L
19/08	FC Schaffhausen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-4	–	–	L
08/08	Basel II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-1	–	–	W

Lugano II

LWLWLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	FC Kreuzlingen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-0	2-3	3	4	L
03/10	FC Paradiso Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
26/09	SC Cham Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
19/09	FC Schaffhausen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-2	–	–	L
13/09	Basel II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	2-0	3-0	2	9	W
05/09	FC Amical Saint-Prex Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-1	–	–	L
29/08	Bavois Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	3-1	3-2	2	8	W
23/08	Biel Bienne Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-5	–	–	L
15/08	Lucerne II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	4-3	–	–	W
09/08	Young Boys II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Grand-Saconnex vs Lugano II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Grand-Saconnex win (62%). Probabilities: FC Grand-Saconnex 62%, draw 21%, Lugano II 18%.

How many goals are expected in FC Grand-Saconnex vs Lugano II?

The model expects 3.54 goals (FC Grand-Saconnex 2.33 · Lugano II 1.21), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Grand-Saconnex vs Lugano II?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.