Football · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion · 11/10, 15:30

Prediction: Lugano II vs FC Kreuzlingen

Team pages: Lugano II · FC Kreuzlingen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Lugano II1.36

FC Kreuzlingen1.58

1X2

32% 26% 42%

Lugano II Draw FC Kreuzlingen

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Lugano II 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLWLLL

FC Kreuzlingen 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDWLLDDW

Head-to-head

Lugano II 1–1–0 FC Kreuzlingen (2 last)

FC Kreuzlingen1-1Lugano II
Lugano II1-0FC Kreuzlingen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lugano II 1461 · FC Kreuzlingen 1478

	Lugano II	Draw	FC Kreuzlingen
Our model	32%	27%	42%
Market	33%	25%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lugano II	FC Kreuzlingen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.2	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.5	0 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/25/25%	0/0/100%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.3	3 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7.3 / 0.3	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.60

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.38 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:42 +12’	2.75	3.60	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:34 +80’	2.66	3.44	2.35
13:35 +54’	2.69▲	3.50▲	2.38▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lugano II 1–1–0 FC Kreuzlingen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	FC Kreuzlingen	1-1	Lugano II
23/11/25 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Lugano II	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Kreuzlingen

Standings · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Biel Bienne	10	8	1	1	23	10	25
2	FC Schaffhausen	11	8	1	2	29	13	25
3	SC Cham	11	7	1	3	19	14	22
4	FC Bulle	11	6	3	2	24	16	21
5	FC Paradiso	11	6	2	3	22	11	20
6	YF Juventus	11	6	1	4	16	14	19
7	FC Grand-Saconnex	11	6	0	5	19	15	18
8	FC Amical Saint-Prex	11	5	1	5	16	22	16
9	Basel II	10	5	0	5	19	19	15
10	FC Zurich II	11	4	3	4	20	20	15
11	Breitenrain	11	4	3	4	15	17	15
12	SC Bruhl	11	4	2	5	13	15	14
13	FC Kreuzlingen	10	3	3	4	13	13	12
14	Young Boys II	11	3	2	6	21	30	11
15	Lugano II	10	3	0	7	15	22	9
16	Bavois	11	2	2	7	10	14	8
17	Lucerne II	11	2	1	8	15	27	7
18	AC Bellinzona	11	1	2	8	7	24	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lugano II	FC Kreuzlingen
FC Paradiso	0-1 L	1-1 D
SC Cham	0-1 L	1-2 L
FC Schaffhausen	1-2 L	0-3 L
Basel II	3-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Lugano II (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lugano II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	FC Paradiso Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
26/09	SC Cham Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
19/09	FC Schaffhausen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-2	–	–	L
13/09	Basel II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	2-0	3-0	2	9	W
05/09	FC Amical Saint-Prex Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-1	–	–	L
29/08	Bavois Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	3-1	3-2	2	8	W
23/08	Biel Bienne Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-5	–	–	L
15/08	Lucerne II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	4-3	–	–	W
09/08	Young Boys II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-3	–	–	L
02/08	FC Bulle Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-4	–	–	L

FC Kreuzlingen

WLLDWLLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/09	SC Bruhl Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	3-0	–	–	W
26/09	YF Juventus Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-1	–	–	D
20/09	FC Zurich II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-2	–	–	D
13/09	AC Bellinzona Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-2	–	–	L
05/09	FC Grand-Saconnex Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-1	–	–	L
29/08	Breitenrain Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	FC Paradiso Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-1	–	–	D
19/08	SC Cham Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-1	1-2	7	2	L
08/08	FC Schaffhausen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-3	–	–	L
01/08	Basel II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lugano II vs FC Kreuzlingen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Kreuzlingen win (42%). Probabilities: Lugano II 32%, draw 26%, FC Kreuzlingen 42%.

How many goals are expected in Lugano II vs FC Kreuzlingen?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Lugano II 1.36 · FC Kreuzlingen 1.58), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Lugano II vs FC Kreuzlingen?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.