Football · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion · 17/10, 15:30

Prediction: Basel II vs Bavois

Team pages: Basel II · Bavois

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Basel II1.72

Bavois1.42

1X2

44% 24% 31%

Basel II Draw Bavois

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Basel II 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLLWWD

Bavois 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DLDLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Basel II 2–4 Bavois (6 last)

Bavois0-2Basel II
Basel II1-4Bavois
Basel II3-1Bavois
Bavois3-0Basel II
Bavois1-0Basel II
Basel II0-2Bavois

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Basel II 1527 · Bavois 1400

	Basel II	Draw	Bavois
Our model	44%	26%	31%
Market	45%	23%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Basel II (rating 1527 vs 1400).
H2H favours Bavois: 4-0-2.
High corners: 14.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Basel II	Bavois
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.8	0.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/50/33%	0/75/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 8.8	2.5 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.3	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.80

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 3.29 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:47 +3’	2.00	3.80	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:32 +41’	1.95	3.68	3.24
13:32 +54’	1.97▲	3.74▲	3.29▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Basel II 2–0–4 Bavois

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Bavois	0-2 HT 0-0	Basel II
13/09/25 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Basel II	1-4	Bavois
08/03/25 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Basel II	3-1	Bavois
31/08/24 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Bavois	3-0 HT 1-0	Basel II
06/04/24 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Bavois	1-0	Basel II
30/09/23 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Basel II	0-2	Bavois

Standings · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Biel Bienne	11	8	2	1	25	12	26
2	FC Schaffhausen	11	8	1	2	29	13	25
3	SC Cham	11	7	1	3	19	14	22
4	FC Bulle	11	6	3	2	24	16	21
5	FC Paradiso	12	6	3	3	24	13	21
6	YF Juventus	11	6	1	4	16	14	19
7	Basel II	12	6	1	5	24	22	19
8	FC Grand-Saconnex	12	6	0	6	20	17	18
9	Breitenrain	12	5	3	4	18	17	18
10	FC Amical Saint-Prex	12	5	1	6	16	25	16
11	FC Kreuzlingen	11	4	3	4	16	15	15
12	FC Zurich II	11	4	3	4	20	20	15
13	SC Bruhl	11	4	2	5	13	15	14
14	Lugano II	12	4	0	8	19	26	12
15	Young Boys II	12	3	3	6	23	32	12
16	Bavois	12	2	2	8	11	17	8
17	Lucerne II	11	2	1	8	15	27	7
18	AC Bellinzona	11	1	2	8	7	24	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Basel II	Bavois
Biel Bienne	2-2 D	0-2 L
Lucerne II	3-2 W	0-1 L
Young Boys II	2-0 W	1-2 L
FC Bulle	1-2 L	3-0 W
Lugano II	0-3 L	2-3 L
SC Bruhl	3-0 W	0-0 D
YF Juventus	3-2 W	0-1 L
FC Zurich II	2-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Basel II (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Basel II

LWLWWLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Biel Bienne Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-1	2-2	6	2	D
03/10	Lucerne II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-1	3-2	10	5	W
26/09	Young Boys II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-0	2-0	11	5	W
19/09	FC Bulle Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-1	1-2	6	8	L
13/09	Lugano II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-2	0-3	10	9	L
05/09	SC Bruhl Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	3-0	10	4	W
29/08	YF Juventus Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	3-2	–	–	W
22/08	FC Zurich II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-3	–	–	L
18/08	AC Bellinzona Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	3-2	–	–	W
08/08	FC Grand-Saconnex Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-2	–	–	L

Bavois

DLDLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FC Amical Saint-Prex Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
03/10	Breitenrain Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
26/09	Biel Bienne Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-2	–	–	L
20/09	Lucerne II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
12/09	Young Boys II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-2	–	–	L
05/09	FC Bulle Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	3-0	–	–	W
29/08	Lugano II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-3	2-3	9	8	L
22/08	SC Bruhl Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-0	–	–	D
19/08	YF Juventus Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	FC Zurich II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Basel II vs Bavois?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Basel II win (44%). Probabilities: Basel II 44%, draw 24%, Bavois 31%.

How many goals are expected in Basel II vs Bavois?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Basel II 1.72 · Bavois 1.42), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Basel II vs Bavois?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.