Football · Poland III Liga · 25/10, 13:30

Prediction: Pogon Sokol Lubaczow vs Podlasie Biala Podlaska

Team pages: Pogon Sokol Lubaczow · Podlasie Biala Podlaska

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Pogon Sokol Lubaczow1.59

Podlasie Biala Podlaska1.36

1X2

42% 26% 32%

Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Draw Podlasie Biala Podlaska

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Podlasie Biala Podlaska 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 2–1–1 Podlasie Biala Podlaska (4 last)

Pogon Sokol Lubaczow1-3Podlasie Biala Podlaska
Podlasie Biala Podlaska0-3Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
Podlasie Biala Podlaska2-2Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
Pogon Sokol Lubaczow3-0Podlasie Biala Podlaska

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 1434 · Podlasie Biala Podlaska 1472

	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	Draw	Podlasie Biala Podlaska
Our model	42%	27%	32%
Market	43%	25%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Pogon Sokol Lubaczow: 2-1-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	Podlasie Biala Podlaska
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.1	0.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.2	2.4 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.60

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:39 +6’	2.10	3.60	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 2–1–1 Podlasie Biala Podlaska

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Poland III Liga	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	1-3 HT 0-2	Podlasie Biala Podlaska
11/10/25 Poland III Liga	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	0-3 HT 0-2	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
29/03/25 Poland III Liga	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	2-2 HT 0-2	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
31/08/24 Poland III Liga	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	3-0 HT 1-0	Podlasie Biala Podlaska

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Wisloka Debica	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	13	7	2	4	28	25	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	14	6	3	5	21	15	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	25	22	20
8	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Star Starachowice	14	4	5	5	20	21	17
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
12	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	13	4	2	7	19	30	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	Podlasie Biala Podlaska
Siarka Tarnobrzeg	0-4 L	0-2 L
Wieczysta Krakow II	1-1 D	2-1 W
Wisloka Debica	1-2 L	0-1 L
Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	0-1 L	0-0 D
JKS Jaroslaw	2-5 L	0-2 L
AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Podlasie Biala Podlaska (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
10/10	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
02/10	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
26/09	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
19/09	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	2-2	2-5	3	5	L
12/09	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	6	9	W
05/09	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
29/08	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	1-0	4-2	–	–	W
23/08	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
19/08	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D

Podlasie Biala Podlaska

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
10/10	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	8	3	L
01/10	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	8	2	D
26/09	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
19/09	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
11/09	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	3	9	W
06/09	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
28/08	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
22/08	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
19/08	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pogon Sokol Lubaczow vs Podlasie Biala Podlaska?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pogon Sokol Lubaczow win (42%). Probabilities: Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 42%, draw 26%, Podlasie Biala Podlaska 32%.

How many goals are expected in Pogon Sokol Lubaczow vs Podlasie Biala Podlaska?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 1.59 · Podlasie Biala Podlaska 1.36), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Pogon Sokol Lubaczow vs Podlasie Biala Podlaska?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.