Football · Poland III Liga · 31/10, 20:00

Prediction: Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs KTS-K Luzino

Team pages: Polonia Sroda Wlkp · KTS-K Luzino

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.87Total

Polonia Sroda Wlkp2.14

KTS-K Luzino1.73

1X2

46% 23% 30%

Polonia Sroda Wlkp Draw KTS-K Luzino

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Polonia Sroda Wlkp 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWDDWWWD

KTS-K Luzino 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWLWLL

Head-to-head

Polonia Sroda Wlkp 2–1–1 KTS-K Luzino (4 last)

Polonia Sroda Wlkp1-2KTS-K Luzino
KTS-K Luzino2-2Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Polonia Sroda Wlkp3-1KTS-K Luzino
KTS-K Luzino0-4Polonia Sroda Wlkp

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Polonia Sroda Wlkp 1581 · KTS-K Luzino 1517

	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	Draw	KTS-K Luzino
Our model	47%	22%	31%
Market	46%	24%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.87 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Polonia Sroda Wlkp (rating 1581 vs 1517).
H2H favours Polonia Sroda Wlkp: 2-1-1.
High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	KTS-K Luzino
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.6	2.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.7	2.7 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.75

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 2.20▲	Pinn 2.28 ★
X	3.75 → 3.70▼	Bet365 3.70
2	3.00 → 2.63▼	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:48 +8’	1.95	3.75	3.00
17:01 +10’	2.20▲	3.70▼	2.63▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:28 +12’	2.16	3.46	2.73
13:09 +1’	2.15▼	3.48▲	2.73
17:09 +2’	2.28▲	3.48	2.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Polonia Sroda Wlkp 2–1–1 KTS-K Luzino

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 Poland III Liga	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	1-2 HT 1-0	KTS-K Luzino
27/08/25 Poland III Liga	KTS-K Luzino	2-2 HT 0-2	Polonia Sroda Wlkp
10/03/24 Poland III Liga	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	3-1 HT 0-0	KTS-K Luzino
19/08/23 Poland III Liga	KTS-K Luzino	0-4 HT 0-2	Polonia Sroda Wlkp

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	14	10	4	0	22	6	34
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	14	8	5	1	26	11	29
3	Wisloka Debica	14	8	2	4	21	16	26
4	Wislanie Jaskowice	15	7	3	5	23	16	24
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	14	7	3	4	30	27	24
6	Czarni Polaniec	14	7	3	4	20	18	24
7	Hetman Zamosc	14	6	5	3	26	22	23
8	Wisla Krakow II	15	6	4	5	20	20	22
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	14	6	2	6	22	21	20
10	Star Starachowice	15	5	5	5	24	24	20
11	JKS Jaroslaw	14	5	2	7	29	26	17
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	14	3	7	4	14	15	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	15	4	4	7	15	19	16
14	Korona Kielce II	15	4	2	9	29	35	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	14	4	2	8	20	32	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	15	3	4	8	11	24	13
17	Moravia Morawica	15	3	3	9	19	26	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	15	3	2	10	17	30	11

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	KTS-K Luzino
Lech Poznan II	3-2 W	2-4 L
Kluczevia Stargard	2-0 W	2-3 L
Wda Swiecie	4-0 W	3-0 W
Elana Torun	2-2 D	1-3 L
Notec Czarnkow	0-0 D	2-0 W
Unia Swarzedz	4-3 W	3-1 W
Grom Nowy Staw	4-4 D	5-1 W
Gedania Gdansk	4-3 W	4-0 W
Lipno Steszew	3-2 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	6 W 3 D 0 L	6 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Polonia Sroda Wlkp

WWDWDDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
18/10	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	6	7	W
09/10	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	9	4	W
03/10	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	7	5	W
26/09	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
19/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
11/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-1	4-3	5	5	W
05/09	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-2	4-4	7	6	D
28/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-1	4-3	6	7	W
22/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	–	–	W

KTS-K Luzino

LWWWWWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-3	2-4	7	3	L
17/10	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	1-2	2-3	13	4	L
10/10	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	8	2	W
03/10	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	2	7	L
26/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	8	8	W
19/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-1	3-1	4	5	W
11/09	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-0	5-1	2	0	W
05/09	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	8	4	W
28/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
23/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs KTS-K Luzino?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Polonia Sroda Wlkp win (46%). Probabilities: Polonia Sroda Wlkp 46%, draw 23%, KTS-K Luzino 30%.

How many goals are expected in Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs KTS-K Luzino?

The model expects 3.87 goals (Polonia Sroda Wlkp 2.14 · KTS-K Luzino 1.73), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs KTS-K Luzino?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.