Football · Poland III Liga · 04/11, 12:00

Prediction: Kluczevia Stargard vs Lech Poznan II

Team pages: Kluczevia Stargard · Lech Poznan II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

Kluczevia Stargard1.92

Lech Poznan II1.71

1X2

43% 23% 34%

Kluczevia Stargard Draw Lech Poznan II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Kluczevia Stargard 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLLWDW

Lech Poznan II 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWDWLLWW

Head-to-head

Kluczevia Stargard 1–1 Lech Poznan II (2 last)

Kluczevia Stargard1-0Lech Poznan II
Lech Poznan II2-1Kluczevia Stargard

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kluczevia Stargard 1536 · Lech Poznan II 1518

	Kluczevia Stargard	Draw	Lech Poznan II
Our model	43%	23%	34%
Market	43%	23%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 13 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kluczevia Stargard	Lech Poznan II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	2.7 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	1.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.6	4.3 / 7.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.90

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
11:56 +7’	2.10	3.90	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kluczevia Stargard 1–0–1 Lech Poznan II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Poland III Liga	Kluczevia Stargard	1-0 HT 0-0	Lech Poznan II
22/08/25 Poland III Liga	Lech Poznan II	2-1 HT 2-0	Kluczevia Stargard

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	15	11	4	0	25	6	37
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	15	8	5	2	27	13	29
3	Wisloka Debica	15	9	2	4	23	17	29
4	Hetman Zamosc	15	7	5	3	28	22	26
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	15	7	4	4	31	28	25
6	Czarni Polaniec	15	7	4	4	22	20	25
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	15	7	3	5	23	16	24
8	Wisla Krakow II	15	6	4	5	20	20	22
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	15	6	3	6	23	22	21
10	Star Starachowice	15	5	5	5	24	24	20
11	JKS Jaroslaw	15	5	3	7	31	28	18
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	15	3	7	5	14	17	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	15	4	4	7	15	19	16
14	Korona Kielce II	15	4	2	9	29	35	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	15	4	2	9	20	35	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	15	3	4	8	11	24	13
17	Moravia Morawica	15	3	3	9	19	26	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	15	3	2	10	17	30	11

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kluczevia Stargard	Lech Poznan II
Flota Swinoujscie	2-2 D	8-1 W
KTS-K Luzino	3-2 W	4-2 W
Polonia Sroda Wlkp	0-2 L	2-3 L
KKS 1925 Kalisz	0-1 L	4-2 W
Wda Swiecie	2-1 W	1-4 L
Elana Torun	2-1 W	0-0 D
Notec Czarnkow	1-3 L	2-1 W
Unia Swarzedz	2-0 W	1-1 D
Grom Nowy Staw	4-3 W	2-4 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Lech Poznan II (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kluczevia Stargard

WWLWWLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
24/10	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	2-0	2-2	4	6	D
17/10	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	3	4	W
09/10	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
27/09	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
19/09	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
12/09	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
05/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
28/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
23/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-1	4-3	–	–	W

Lech Poznan II

WLDWDWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	3-0	8-1	3	2	W
24/10	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	3-0	4-2	6	3	W
18/10	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-2	2-3	5	7	L
14/10	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	13	7	L
10/10	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	3-0	4-2	10	2	W
19/09	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	11	1	D
12/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	7	2	W
04/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
29/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-0	2-4	8	4	L
23/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kluczevia Stargard vs Lech Poznan II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kluczevia Stargard win (43%). Probabilities: Kluczevia Stargard 43%, draw 23%, Lech Poznan II 34%.

How many goals are expected in Kluczevia Stargard vs Lech Poznan II?

The model expects 3.63 goals (Kluczevia Stargard 1.92 · Lech Poznan II 1.71), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Kluczevia Stargard vs Lech Poznan II?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.