Football · Poland III Liga · 31/10, 17:00

Prediction: Polonia Nysa vs Carina Gubin

Team pages: Polonia Nysa · Carina Gubin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Polonia Nysa1.6

Carina Gubin1.33

1X2

43% 27% 31%

Polonia Nysa Draw Carina Gubin

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Polonia Nysa 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Carina Gubin 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Polonia Nysa 2–1–1 Carina Gubin (4 last)

Carina Gubin1-2Polonia Nysa
Polonia Nysa2-2Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin1-0Polonia Nysa
Polonia Nysa4-1Carina Gubin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Polonia Nysa 1453 · Carina Gubin 1453

	Polonia Nysa	Draw	Carina Gubin
Our model	43%	27%	31%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Polonia Nysa: 2-1-1.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Polonia Nysa	Carina Gubin
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.1	0.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6	4 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.40

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.47
2	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.29 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:19 +25’	2.10	3.40	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:12 +72’	1.90	3.47	3.29

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Polonia Nysa 2–1–1 Carina Gubin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Poland III Liga	Carina Gubin	1-2 HT 0-2	Polonia Nysa
14/11/25 Poland III Liga	Polonia Nysa	2-2 HT 1-0	Carina Gubin
04/03/23 Poland III Liga	Carina Gubin	1-0 HT 0-0	Polonia Nysa
06/08/22 Poland III Liga	Polonia Nysa	4-1 HT 1-1	Carina Gubin

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	14	10	4	0	22	6	34
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	14	8	5	1	26	11	29
3	Wisloka Debica	14	8	2	4	21	16	26
4	Wislanie Jaskowice	15	7	3	5	23	16	24
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	14	7	3	4	30	27	24
6	Czarni Polaniec	14	7	3	4	20	18	24
7	Hetman Zamosc	14	6	5	3	26	22	23
8	Wisla Krakow II	15	6	4	5	20	20	22
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	14	6	2	6	22	21	20
10	Star Starachowice	15	5	5	5	24	24	20
11	JKS Jaroslaw	14	5	2	7	29	26	17
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	14	3	7	4	14	15	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	15	4	4	7	15	19	16
14	Korona Kielce II	15	4	2	9	29	35	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	14	4	2	8	20	32	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	15	3	4	8	11	24	13
17	Moravia Morawica	15	3	3	9	19	26	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	15	3	2	10	17	30	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Polonia Nysa	Carina Gubin
Zaglebie Sosnowiec	1-2 L	0-4 L
Sparta Katowice	0-4 L	1-3 L
Sleza Wroclaw	1-3 L	3-1 W
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Carina Gubin (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Polonia Nysa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
16/10	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	0-0	2-2	13	6	D
10/10	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
02/10	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
26/09	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
18/09	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
12/09	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
05/09	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	0	4	L
29/08	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L

Carina Gubin

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-0	1-3	–	–	L
17/10	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	6	4	W
10/10	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
03/10	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
26/09	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
18/09	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	7	0	L
11/09	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
28/08	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
22/08	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-2	0-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Polonia Nysa vs Carina Gubin?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Polonia Nysa win (43%). Probabilities: Polonia Nysa 43%, draw 27%, Carina Gubin 31%.

How many goals are expected in Polonia Nysa vs Carina Gubin?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Polonia Nysa 1.6 · Carina Gubin 1.33), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Polonia Nysa vs Carina Gubin?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.