Football · Poland III Liga · 04/11, 12:30

Prediction: Rakow Czestochowa II vs MKS Kluczbork

Team pages: Rakow Czestochowa II · MKS Kluczbork

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Rakow Czestochowa II1.44

MKS Kluczbork1.38

1X2

38% 26% 36%

Rakow Czestochowa II Draw MKS Kluczbork

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Rakow Czestochowa II 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDWDWLLWLL

MKS Kluczbork 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLLWWD

Head-to-head

Rakow Czestochowa II 2–2 MKS Kluczbork (4 last)

Rakow Czestochowa II1-0MKS Kluczbork
MKS Kluczbork3-0Rakow Czestochowa II
MKS Kluczbork2-1Rakow Czestochowa II
Rakow Czestochowa II2-1MKS Kluczbork

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rakow Czestochowa II 1476 · MKS Kluczbork 1499

	Rakow Czestochowa II	Draw	MKS Kluczbork
Our model	37%	28%	35%
Market	39%	24%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rakow Czestochowa II	MKS Kluczbork
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.8	2.7 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.5	6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.70

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.30▼	Bet365 2.30
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.25 → 2.45▲	Pinn 2.69 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:55 +8’	2.45	3.70	2.25
19:55 +15’	2.30▼	3.70	2.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:03	2.31	3.28	2.63
06:52 +9’	2.22▼	3.18▼	2.59▼
07:37 +25’	2.28▲	3.30▲	2.66▲
11:00 +1’	2.30▲	3.35▲	2.69▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rakow Czestochowa II 2–0–2 MKS Kluczbork

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/24 Poland III Liga	Rakow Czestochowa II	1-0 HT 0-0	MKS Kluczbork
10/11/23 Poland III Liga	MKS Kluczbork	3-0 HT 2-0	Rakow Czestochowa II
04/03/23 Poland III Liga	MKS Kluczbork	2-1 HT 2-0	Rakow Czestochowa II
06/08/22 Poland III Liga	Rakow Czestochowa II	2-1 HT 0-1	MKS Kluczbork

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	15	11	4	0	25	6	37
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	15	8	5	2	27	13	29
3	Wisloka Debica	15	9	2	4	23	17	29
4	Hetman Zamosc	15	7	5	3	28	22	26
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	15	7	4	4	31	28	25
6	Czarni Polaniec	15	7	4	4	22	20	25
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	15	7	3	5	23	16	24
8	Wisla Krakow II	15	6	4	5	20	20	22
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	15	6	3	6	23	22	21
10	Star Starachowice	15	5	5	5	24	24	20
11	JKS Jaroslaw	15	5	3	7	31	28	18
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	15	3	7	5	14	17	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	15	4	4	7	15	19	16
14	Korona Kielce II	15	4	2	9	29	35	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	15	4	2	9	20	35	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	15	3	4	8	11	24	13
17	Moravia Morawica	15	3	3	9	19	26	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	15	3	2	10	17	30	11

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rakow Czestochowa II	MKS Kluczbork
Karkonosze Jelenia Gora	1-3 L	2-2 D
Warta Gorzow	3-2 W	2-0 W
Zaglebie Sosnowiec	0-1 L	0-1 L
Miedz Legnica II	1-2 L	2-0 W
Polonia Nysa	2-0 W	1-3 L
Sparta Katowice	1-1 D	1-2 L
Sleza Wroclaw	2-1 W	3-2 W
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	0-0 D	0-3 L
Stal Brzeg	0-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: MKS Kluczbork (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rakow Czestochowa II

LDWDWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	6	4	L
24/10	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	0-2	1-3	6	6	L
17/10	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	3	6	W
14/10	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	7	7	L
10/10	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	5	5	L
18/09	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
13/09	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
05/09	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
29/08	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	5	9	D
23/08	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	–	–	L

MKS Kluczbork

WWLWLLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
24/10	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/10	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	5	7	W
10/10	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
26/09	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
19/09	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	3	9	L
12/09	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
05/09	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	5	8	L
28/08	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
22/08	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rakow Czestochowa II vs MKS Kluczbork?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rakow Czestochowa II win (38%). Probabilities: Rakow Czestochowa II 38%, draw 26%, MKS Kluczbork 36%.

How many goals are expected in Rakow Czestochowa II vs MKS Kluczbork?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Rakow Czestochowa II 1.44 · MKS Kluczbork 1.38), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Rakow Czestochowa II vs MKS Kluczbork?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.